The
people behind the pro-nuclear film Pandora’s
Promise defend their unusual title choice by reminding us that after
Pandora unleashed all the evils of the world, there was hope at the bottom of
the box. But the filmmakers’ premise is actually quite cynical
and pessimistic.
The
film mentions the well-known problem with energy efficiency: the Jevons paradox that was
first noticed in the 1865 when improvements were made in coal burning technology.
William Jevons observed that efficiency doesn’t lead to overall reduction in
energy consumption. GDP continued to grow, standards of living increased, and
an increasing number of people were able to benefit from energy consumption.
The
phenomenon is obvious today if you consider that as hybrid engines deliver
great improvements in energy efficiency, more cars will be sold and they will
probably be driven longer distances. So, according to this logic, the situation
is hopeless. We can’t expect that renewable energy and efficiency gains will
save humanity from the climate crisis. The film resorts to a TINA mentality
here: Accept what we say because There
Is No Alternative to
nuclear energy. Only a massive expansion of nuclear energy can satisfy the
future demand for electricity by “the poor” (in these arguments, it is never
the rich who have desires). Yet wouldn’t the logic of the Jevons paradox also
apply to the nuclear option? If demand will always increase, then, just like
fossil fuels, renewables and efficiency gains, nuclear is finite, even the promised
next generation nuclear. There is a limited number of sites for nuclear plants, and competing demands for land use and the resources necessary to build them.
This
point about competing demands was overlooked by Stewart Brand (who appears in Pandora’s Promise) when he debated
nuclear energy on the TED stage in 2010. He began with these words:
We are moving to
cities... And we are educating our kids, having fewer kids, basically
good news all around. But we move to cities, toward the bright lights, and
one of the things that is there that we want, besides jobs, is
electricity. And if it isn't easily gotten, we'll go ahead and steal it. This
is one of the most desired things by poor people all over the world, in
the cities and in the countryside.
The
statements are true and obvious on their own, but it would be a mistake to consider
them in isolation from more fundamental desires. There are a few things that
poor people, and all people, desire more than electricity, such as water and
food, seas, lakes, rivers and lands to provide the real essentials of life. This
is why rural people in India have been in bitter conflict over nuclear
power plant projects for many years. In fact, governments that have promoted
nuclear power have always had to bribe, bully and deceive rural communities
into accepting projects that benefit others. Yes, we all like to have
electricity, even the rural poor, but not to the detriment of the true
essentials of life.
Thus,
at the bottom of this Pandora’s box there really is no hope. It’s only a misleading
argument that the present trend must continue. Economies and energy consumption
must grow forever.
The
hopeful solution to the Jevons paradox is a self-imposed limit on energy use.
Societies have to shift their values and set policies that establish limits on
energy consumption. This can be done by deliberate restraint, but there is some
evidence that it is also happening already through undirected mechanisms. In a
much better TED video than the nuclear debate, Amory Lovins showed data that
indicates GDP growth has become detached from energy consumption. In other words, the Jevons paradox has been solved. Hybrid cars are worthwhile because there is a practical limit to how many cars we need and how far we have to drive them. Lovins' data show that
in the US, the amount of energy needed to produce a dollar of GDP has declined
by half since 1976.
It
might be hard to understand how this could be so, but it is likely that the
Jevons paradox tapered off as industrial societies reached the limit of material goods needed to provide a decent life. After people have all the basic stuff, their houses are full. Thus every developing society enters its post-consumerist phase. After this point, jobs shift to producing what can be called intangible,
perceived or badge value. The downside of this is that so many people feel like
they don’t produce anything worthwhile. They just push information around, try
to sell services for which people feel no natural need, or they join the ranks
of the “evil” advertising industry. But it was ad man Rory Sutherland on the TED stage who made the essential point about what is needed to maintain full
employment and preserve the ecosystem at the same time. I let him have the last
word:
… what we create in advertising, which is intangible value -- you might call it perceived value, you might call it badge value, subjective value, intangible value of some kind -- gets rather a bad rap. If you think about it, if you want to live in a world in the future where there are fewer material goods, you basically have two choices. You can either live in a world which is poorer, which people in general don't like. Or you can live in a world where actually intangible value constitutes a greater part of overall value, that actually intangible value, in many ways is a very, very fine substitute for using up labor or limited resources in the creation of things.
Here is one example.
This is a train which goes from London to Paris. The question was given to
a bunch of engineers, about 15 years ago, "How do we make the journey
to Paris better?" And they came up with a very good engineering
solution, which was to spend six billion pounds building completely
new tracks from London to the coast, and knocking about 40 minutes
off a three-and-half-hour journey time. Now, call me Mister Picky. I'm
just an ad man... but it strikes me as a slightly unimaginative way
of improving a train journey merely to make it shorter. Now what is
the hedonic opportunity cost on spending six billion pounds on those
railway tracks?
Here is my naive
advertising man's suggestion. What you should in fact do is employ all of
the world's top male and female supermodels, pay them to walk the
length of the train, handing out free Chateau Petrus for the entire
duration of the journey. Now, you'll still have about three billion pounds
left in change, and people will ask for the trains to be slowed down.
Sources:
“Stewart
Brand + Mark Z. Jacobson: Debate: Does the world need nuclear energy?” TED. February, 2010. http://www.ted.com/talks/debate_does_the_world_need_nuclear_energy.html
“Amory
Lovins: A 40-year plan for energy.” TED,
March 2012. http://www.ted.com/talks/amory_lovins_a_50_year_plan_for_energy.html
“Rory
Sutherland: Life lessons from an ad man.” TED Global, July 2009. http://www.ted.com/talks/rory_sutherland_life_lessons_from_an_ad_man.html
P.K. Sundaram. "Koodankulam: Indian democracy under nuclear threat." Dianuke.org. November 23, 2011. http://www.dianuke.org/democracy-nuclear-koodankulam/
P.K. Sundaram. "Koodankulam: Indian democracy under nuclear threat." Dianuke.org. November 23, 2011. http://www.dianuke.org/democracy-nuclear-koodankulam/