Showing posts with label Alternative Energy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alternative Energy. Show all posts

2016/03/26

Nuclear Pipe Dreams: Too young to reason, too grown up to dream

Bryan Ferry wrote “too young to reason, too grown up to dream” in 1985 in the song Slave to Love, at the age of forty. Perhaps he wasn’t singing about teenage love as much as he was about the human condition. No matter how old we are, reasoning is faulty, imagination declines with age, and the way forward falls victim to hubris and doubt. Many of our self-proclaimed men and women of reason, the most highly educated and proudly rational leaders, refuse to accept evidence that capitalism is driving humanity over a cliff. They pretend that nuclear energy can solve the climate crisis while they are incapable of conjuring up a worthy dream of alternative social and technological transformation.
From the official music video for Slave to Love, Bryan Ferry, 1985
One man who is a rare exception to this breed, with the rare capacity to reason and dream a dream worth realizing, is the French physicist and ex-nucleocrat, Bernard Laponche. He left the French nuclear establishment in the early 1980s in order to do research on alternative energy. On March 22, 2016, he spoke at the Centre Franco-Japonais in Tokyo to explain how through two decades of research he and his colleagues at Global Chance have mapped out a plan for a complete transition away from fossil fuels and nuclear. His criticisms of nuclear energy and his ideas for alternatives were covered in a previous post, a translation of an interview published in Telerama.fr in 2011.

The main point one could take home from his presentation in Tokyo consisted of some simple data: 17% of global energy output is in the form of electricity, and 11% of that is produced by splitting uranium and plutonium atoms. 17 x 0.11 is 1.87, so, to round it up generously, that’s about 2% of global energy needs being supplied by nuclear energy (the charts below, from different sources, show similar figures from earlier years). Thus people who think nuclear energy can save the world are imagining an impossibly fast and vast nuclear expansion project, one which wise nations and private investors don’t want to pay for because of the obvious future uncertainties. Even if there were the desire to build such an expansion, it would be physically impossible. There aren’t enough suitable sites, and there is no way to handle the increased stocks of spent nuclear fuel rods. There has never been a solution for what already exists. Finally, society would have to be oblivious to all the risks and the legacy of damage that we have already.
The nuclear proponents are not entirely too old to have dreams, but the problem is that they are pipe dreams. They say they will build a new generation of safe reactors that will “eat up” all the nuclear waste over a few centuries, and during that time all other non-electricity types of energy will be electrified. Heating, cooling, transportation and industrial needs will all run on nuclear-generated electricity, and the planet will be saved from the catastrophic effects of fossil fuels. Then, a few centuries hence, there will be nirvana with the long-imagined fusion energy breakthrough.

Usually when a person tries to sell you something, or promise you something, you expect the goods to be delivered within a reasonable time. Otherwise, you have no faith in the offer. But the nuclear sales pitch promises nothing in your lifetime. It asks you to put up your money and bet on results that won’t be known for hundreds of years. You are told that the reactors and the waste products will all be built and managed securely for hundreds of years and the problems will be resolved at some point after your great-great grandchildren are dead. They really think this is a reasonable proposal, and they don’t seem to realize how unprecedented and radical it is to propose such grand schemes that must stretch into the deep future.

At a certain point these energy dreams become like a desire to reach heaven. All want would cease, and we’d all be sitting (bored out of our minds) on puffy white clouds on that great rapturous day when suffering ends and all our energy needs are fulfilled. This is why science has come to be called a cult.

Mr. Laponche finished his presentation by stressing that the most important thing is to forget about these messianic quests and keep our vision of our energy future down to earth, focused on what humans really need: clean water, clean air and clean soil. Needing these things is not the same as wanting to be comfortable, and our energy policy will have to be based on this understanding… which brings us back to that simple love song that is also about so much more—the downfall of the rich and the strong, burning skies and seas aflame. Several lines of the song conjure up this dilemma of self-deceived, hopeful, enslaved, earthbound creatures lost in a time of upheaval.

Tell her I'll be waiting in the usual place
With the tired and weary there's no escape
To need a woman you've got to know
How the strong get weak and the rich get poor
We're the restless hearted
Not the chained and bound
The sky is burning
A sea aflame
Though your world is changing
I will be the same
The storm is breaking or so it seems
We're too young to reason, too grown up to dream
Now spring is turning your face to mine
I can hear your laughter, I can see your smile
Slave to love
I can't escape

Repeated lines have been cut. The full lyrics can be found elsewhere.

Further reading:


*The vision and mission of  www.global-chance.org bears a great resemblance to that of the Rocky Mountain Institute. See the presentation by RMI’s Amory Lovins, Winning the Oil Endgame, for a close “English version” of the vision put forth by Mr. Laponche in French in the many articles published by Global Chance.


2015/10/26

French Scientist Bernard Laponche: The reactor produces the means of its own destruction.

French physicist Bernard Laponche speaks about France's nuclear obstinacy, EPR, ITER, and the Energy Transition

Since the Fukushima Dai-ichi catastrophe put the anti-nuclear movement back into public consciousness there has been a surfeit of research and opinionating about nuclear energy and nuclear disarmament. It has become difficult to think of anything original to add to the discourse. But I continue here to add to similar previous posts that highlight voices of physicists and physicians, some of them former nuclear industry insiders, who have spoken out about the way nuclear technologies, both civilian and military, have recklessly endangered life on earth.
These are people who could have had more comfortable and lucrative careers by looking away and working on other matters, but they believed that their privileged position and their knowledge gave them a responsibility to speak out.
The post that follows is a translation that can inform the English-reading world about an insider of the French nuclear industry, Bernard Laponche, who has worked tirelessly for decades to raise the alarm about France's blind commitment to nuclear energy. Every nuclearized country seems to have a few heroes like Monsieur Laponche. They all have a similar message, but they all deserve to be recognized and listened to by a global audience.
In this interview from 2011, he made some predictions which have come true, and others that may be only half right. He said France would pay dearly for the mistake of building the EPR reactor, and on this point he was right on the mark. The costly delays, cancelled projects, disastrous construction flaws, and the resulting bankruptcy of Areva all show that he was right. However, when he said we could count on the Socialist Party to support an enlightened energy transition, he was overly optimistic. The past four years have shown that the attempt to scale back nuclear energy and develop renewables has been very timid so far.
Read on to see what else this French energy expert had to say in June 2011…   
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Vincent Remy, "Bernard Laponche : "There is a strong possibility of a major nuclear accident in Europe," Telerama.fr. Published June 18, 2011, updated August 11, 2014.


Bernard Laponche, nuclear physicist, graduate of the Ecole polytechnique, is absolutely certain: France is in error. With le nucléaire, France obstinately privileges a form of energy that is not only dangerous but also obsolete. Meanwhile, other solutions exist, ones which Germany has already started to develop for its energy transition.

He is theirs. He was one of theirs. Bernard Laponche worked at the heart of the Commissariat à l'énergie atomique, where plans for the first French nuclear power plants were taking shape. He was shocked when he noticed the working conditions of the rank and file at la Hague [France's major nuclear fuel processing facility]. He became aware of the danger of the atom and judged it morally unacceptable. From the 1908s, he was active within the CFDT [the trade union Confédération française démocratique du travail], advocating for research in energy consumption and the development of renewable energy sources. He was vindicated in the following decades. But he says France, the only country in the world to have chosen the all-nuclear option, persisted in its errors and blinded itself. It stuck with an energy form of the past, one in which innovation is impossible. Nuclear represents not only a terrifying threat, for us and the generations that will follow, but it also condemns the country to missing the boat on the indispensable energy revolution.

INTERVIEW

Nuclear energy is always presented as a very sophisticated technology. You say that it is just a matter of it being "the most dangerous way to boil water." Is this view controversial?

Not really… A nuclear reactor is just a heater. It produces heat. But whereas the heat in thermal power stations comes from the combustion of coal or gas, in a nuclear power plant it comes from splitting uranium atoms. This heat is used to produce steam. The steam spins a turbine which produces electricity. So nuclear energy is not a miraculous way of creating electricity from the reactor. It's not as if electricity just arises spontaneously from the reactor.

Why has this image of sophistication been promoted?

The promoters of nuclear don't want to emphasize the primary source, which is uranium. Doing so would associate it with the origins of nuclear energy which were military and strategic applications. Moreover, when they let people think that electricity is produced directly, they give the impression that there is something magical about it, and this makes it seem three times more powerful than it really is. This is because two thirds of the heat is lost. This heat is lost in cooling the reactors and transferring the heat to rivers and oceans.

Tell us about the fuel.

It is thin rods of uranium, lightly enriched with the isotope U235, in the case of French reactors. Fission was recently discovered in 1938. A neutron strikes a uranium nucleus, which explodes, releasing fragments, energy, and neutrons. These neutrons strike other uranium nuclei and a chain reaction starts. These multiplying fissions produce heat. The fission fragments are also new radioactive products which emit alpha, beta and gamma radiation. So inside a reactor you produce heat, which is the benefit, and also radioactive substances, notably plutonium—the most dangerous element you can imagine that existed previously in nature only in trace amounts. We should have asked in the beginning, "Is this way of boiling water really acceptable?"

But this chain reaction can be stopped at any time, can't it?

During normal functioning they lower the control rods into the core of the reactor. These are made of material that absorbs neutrons, so the reaction stops. But they have to continue to cool the reactors after this because the radioactive materials continue to produce heat. So by its very nature this technology involves multiple risks. If the control rod insertion fails, there is a runaway chain reaction, which can cause a nuclear explosion. If there is a crack in the cooling circuit, then there is a loss of cooling, and the extreme heat destroys the fuel rod lining. Radioactive substances escape and hydrogen gas accumulates, which can explode. Right from the start it involves the creation of large quantities of radioactive materials. Catastrophe is intrinsic in the technology. The reactor produces the means of its own destruction.

But there are multiple safety systems...

No matter how much you multiply the safety systems, there are still situations in which they would not suffice. A case in point is Chernobyl. There was a fault in the reactor design and an error in operation. In Fukushima, the flooding was caused by the tsunami. In Blayais, in Geronde, France, the power plant was flooded and we came very close to a major accident. No one had imagined the force of the storm in 1999. There have been accidents that didn't involve tsunamis or flooding, like at Three Mile Island in the United States in 1979. We could also imagine in many countries an armed conflict, or sabotage. To start with nuclear energy involves the production of large quantities of radioactive materials. The reactor produces the means of its own destruction.


Have there been any innovations in nuclear technology?

There have been none since the debut of nuclear science in the 1940s and 1950s. The French reactors are really just larger versions of what was on nuclear-powered American submarines in the 1950s. Reactors, and uranium enrichment and reprocessing were all developed during WWII. They just increased the power and added safety features. But because the systems have become more complex, they don't always guarantee safety.

It's hard to believe there hasn't been any major innovation…

Yes, but there was actually the fast breeder reactor! With Superphénix, they changed the concept of the reactor. Fortunately, it was shut down in 1998 because it was based on the use of plutonium. How could they have imagined making such a dangerous material the basis for a reactor technology to be exported all over the world?

Nicolas Sarkozy declared that if we refuse nuclear, we'll have to go back to using candles. What do you think about this statement?

It's annoying to hear leaders who understand nothing continue to say whatever they please. But Nicolas Sarkozy is actually right. One day, and it may come this summer even, French people will need to light their homes with candles because we are the only country that has chosen to produce 80% of its electricity from a single source, nuclear, and even a single type of reactor, the pressurized water reactor. If we were forced to stop all these reactors, we would indeed have to use candles. The blackout wouldn't have to be caused by a catastrophe. It could just be small generic problem, a drought, or a heat wave. There would be no water to cool the reactors. In contrast, if we decided to get out of nuclear in twenty years, we could advance our innovations in energy production and thus avoid having to use candles.

The proponents of nuclear say that in France, with our new EPR reactor, now under construction in Flamanville, risk has been reduced to zero…

Every country promises that its reactors are better than others. Before Fukushima the Japanese said the same thing as the French. We've already seen five reactors destroyed (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and three in Fukushima), out of 450 that exist in the world, which caused hundreds of square kilometers to become uninhabitable. According to experts, the theoretical probability of accidents had been calculated to be one in 100,000 "reactor-years" [one reactor-year means one reactor functioning for one year], and one in a million for an accident as bad as Chernobyl. What actually happened shows that the odds are 300 times higher than what was calculated by the experts. So there is a high possibility of a major nuclear accident in Europe.

Could a major innovation make you change your mind?

I don't see a solution in the present circumstances, not in engineering nor in scientific knowledge. I don't say that in the future some genius won't find a new, clever way to exploit the energy locked up in the nucleus—in a way that doesn't produce mountains of radioactive waste—but for the moment, there isn't anything conceivable.

Why are you opposed to ITER, the center in Cadarache for developing fusion energy, under the guidance of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency)?

Fusion is the opposite of fission. It's the combining of two nuclei, two isotopes of hydrogen, deuterium (a proton and an neutron) and tritium (a proton and two neutrons). This fusion releases energy, but we have to find a way to fuse these two nuclei. In the sun they fuse due to the force of gravity. On earth, we can use an atomic bomb. That works quite well. The fission explosion induces the fusion of nuclei, which produces a much stronger second explosion. That's the hydrogen bomb, or the H bomb. To get fusion without a bomb, we have to create colossal magnetic fields in order to attain a temperature of a hundred million degrees. ITER began from a Soviet project, and it's a laboratory experiment of pharaonic scale. Very powerful neutrons bombard the steel walls of a reactor. These materials become radioactive and they have to be replaced very often. I'm not a fusion specialist, but I recall that our two recent physics Nobel Prize winners in France, Pierre-Gilles de Gennes and Georges Charpak, have said that ITER was not a good idea. They favored doing fundamental research before building this enormous facility. No one followed their advice, and our politicians leaned on arguments that were pure public relations—we're making the energy of the sun—to ensure that ITER would be built in France.

Why?

Because France wants to be the nuclear leader of the world. The Japanese wanted ITER, but their Nobel Prize physicist, Masatoshi Koshiba, said, "No way," because of the seismic risk. I think that the project will be halted because its price is rising at an exceptional rate. And no one ever asked, "What if it doesn't work? What would a fusion reactor be like?" The group negaWatt has asked, "Why would we want to recreate the energy of the sun when it already lands on us in such large quantities?"

How do you respond to those who think that because of global warming, and the necessity of reducing CO2 emissions, we have to develop more nuclear energy?

First of all, we can't make the reduction of CO2 emissions the only criteria in our choices for how we make electricity. Is it necessary to accept that, for the sake of the climate, every five or ten years we'll have an accident like Fukushima somewhere in the world? In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has shown that if we want to meet our CO2 reduction targets, half of the effort needs to be in energy efficiency. For the other half, resort to renewables is essential. Nuclear represents only 6%. So we have to put the advantage of nuclear in this perspective.


You began your career at the CEA and you participated in the early development of nuclear. What happened?

I even wrote a thesis on plutonium, and I never questioned anything. Everything is very compartmentalized at the CEA. I made calculations for the EDF3 plant in Chinon, and I had no idea about the risks of accidents or the problem of the waste. I worked with brilliant people. Then I got active in the CFDT (trade union), after 1968, and one of the issues was the conditions of the workers at la Hague. I realized that I, as an engineer in my office, knew nothing about their working conditions. And I didn't know that the people of la Hague had no idea what a nuclear reactor was. So in 1975, we collectively wrote a best-seller called L'Electronucléaire en France, and the head of the CEA at the time recognized it for its quality. To write that book, I worked for six months on American documents because in France we had nothing. The CFDT then took a position against the nuclear program. I started working on alternatives to nuclear, and, in 1982, I joined the l'Agence française pour la maîtrise de l'énergie (ADEME).

That was thirty years ago. What were you interested in then?

The same things as now: energy efficiency, renewable energy! The principles of photovoltaics, and thus solar panels, had already been worked out. Today we only speak about electricity, but what we should be installing everywhere is solar water heaters. Nothing could be simpler: a liquid heat conductor circulates through tubes under glass, and you get 60C water. Germany, getting less sunshine than France, has ten times as many solar water heaters. In Midi (south of France) there are almost none.

That doesn't require much innovation…

Innovation is about, above all else, lower costs. Wind power has already been proven competitive with nuclear. In photovoltaics, Germany anticipates a cost decrease of 5% every year. There is a lot of research to be done on marine energy, currents, waves, and the heat of the earth called geothermic energy. Renewable energy sources, the collective term for all these, are each very different, and they could cover, little by little, all energy needs. Germany estimates they'll cover 80% of energy needs by 2050. This is possible, as long as we continue to increase energy efficiency.

We produce electricity from nuclear at a modest price, but we don't account for the cost of dismantling and long-term management of the radioactive waste. Has this penalized renewable energies?

Yes, and since we've built too many nuclear power plants, there is always pressure to consume more electricity, particularly for its most idiotic use—heating, for which France is the champion in Europe. We build mediocre housing, we install radiators, which cost nothing, and this creates a global electric power problem: in Europe one half of the difference between average consumption and the winter peak consumption is caused by France. As a result, in the winter we have to buy electricity from Germany, which produces the needed electricity from carbon fuels. Aside from heating, the French consume 25% more electricity than Germans. In addition to having homes that are better insulated, Germans also have more efficient appliances, and they consume more carefully because electricity is a bit more expensive there.

What are the big energy innovations that will come next?

Smart grids, intelligent networks! Thanks to computing, we can optimize the production and distribution of electricity. At the scale of a village or a region, we can coordinate consumption. For example, we could see to it that refrigerators would not all start at the same time. Nuclear advocates always say that renewable energies fluctuate. The wind doesn't always blow. The sun doesn't always shine. They say that if we don't have nuclear, we'll need millions of wind turbines, but this is not the case when we think in terms of combinations. Germany is studying networks that combine biomass, hydro, wind and solar. And they fit with demand: at night demand is low, so they use wind energy to pump water to a reservoir behind a dam which will produce energy during the day. This is the big innovation of the energy transition, and it is the opposite of a centralized system like nuclear. So what does the future look like? A territory with intelligent meters which make a perfect junction between consumption and local production. Small is beautiful. Germans are succeeding with this transition right now because they made the decision to go this route. That's the key: we have to make the decision. That requires a real awareness of the situation.

How do you explain the lack of awareness in France?

On one part it is the arrogance of the Corps des ingénieurs des mines, on the other it is the servility of politics. A small techno-bureaucracy has decided energy policy for a long time. They made the decisions on how to exploit coal, then oil, and then nuclear. They always went to extremes and then imposed on politics their single-minded vision for electricity generation.

Did that happen because of the centralization of power?

Completely! In the 1970s, a Swedish researcher did research that found nuclear was adopted in some countries and not in others. It concluded that an authoritarian, centralized politico-administrative structure enabled the development of nuclear energy. This was the case in the USSR and France where nuclear was built for false reasons such as energy independence and national prestige and power. A link was maintained between civilian and military applications. The CEA had a military branch, and Areva supplies plutonium to the army. This military-state-industrial complex now considers [German chancellor] Angela Merkel to be crazy. Instead of noticing that the Germans are doing things differently and we should look at their approach seriously, we just decide that they must be fools. Our leaders chant that our reactors are the safest, that nuclear is the future, and we are going to sell our technology everywhere. This is the argument they have always made, but France has barely sold nine reactors in the last fifty years, aside from the two that are under construction in China. This is not the way it was supposed to be. In ten years, Germany has created 400,000 jobs in renewable energy.

Aside from environmentalists, no one, not even the Left, wants to renounce nuclear…

Things are evolving fast. Fukushima has shaken up some of the more reasonable nuclear advocates. I hope the German decision [to quickly phase out nuclear power] will have an influence, not on our actual leaders, but on industry and on financing. They should be saying to themselves: can we keep investing in such a thing? There used to be an Areva-Siemens alliance backing EPR reactors, but Siemens got out years ago. We could always carry on saying the Germans are wrong, but it is difficult to look at the performance of their industries over recent decades and say that they are falling behind.

Can environmentalists depend on the Socialist Party?

Definitely. Already, in 2000, everything was ready for the EPR, but Dominique Voynet, Minister of the Environment, said to Lionel Jospin, "If you go ahead with the EPR, I'll resign." It was the only time she put her resignation up as a bargaining chip, and the EPR was not advanced at the time. I worked with her as an advisor on these issues, and I produced 350 reports for her. There was a daily struggle between the Ministry of the Environment and the Ministry of Industry, which made a mockery of safety. Unfortunately, the EPR was relaunched when Chirac came to power in 2002. And it is going to cost us very dearly. For half a century we have wasted energy, under whatever pretense. It is now urgent that we become a civilization that uses energy in a way that doesn't endanger life.

Vincent Remy, "Bernard Laponche : "There is a strong possibility of a major nuclear accident in Europe," Telerama.fr. Published June 18, 2011, updated August 11, 2014

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2015/09/04

The Dawn of the Age of Nuclear Waste

On July 25, 2015, Green Majority of Canada (www.greenmajority.ca) published an interview with Dr. Gordon Edwards, the president of the Canadian Coalition for Nuclear Responsibility. The link to the interview posted here goes to a version with accurate English subtitles for the benefit of the hearing impaired, people who know English as a foreign language, and anyone who might want to translate this interview into other languages.

Click play, then click on the settings icon 
(beside the YouTube icon) to view the accurate (not automated!)
subtitles, or read the transcript below

Dr. Edwards describes how he became a nuclear skeptic—that is, how he left high school in the 1950s thinking nuclear power was wonderful, but then completely changed his mind by the time he graduated from university. Since then he has been Canada’s most vocal advocate for greater transparency and full public debate about the merits and demerits of nuclear power.
This interview can serve as an essential introductory lesson for those who are new to the discussion of nuclear power. For novices, there is an intimidating learning curve involved, and this challenge causes many people to stay disengaged, or it leads them to just follow an optimism bias and trust the reassuring messages of the pro-nuclear lobby. Most people have no idea how bad the problem is and find it hard to know what to believe. It must be a law of physics that the badness of news is inversely proportional to the likelihood of it being believed. It might even be an inverse square law (non-linear). It is truly hard to admit the grim reality created by the nuclear age.
Dr. Edwards is an expert in explaining nuclear science and nuclear history in simple terms, so this interview has the potential to capture the attention of segments of the population that are still skeptical or yet to be initiated in nuclear matters. In fact, I believe that what it really needs is a global audience. As Dr. Edwards makes clear in the interview, the nuclear industry really is in decline in North America and Europe, and this has caused the nuclear industry to look for unsuspecting buyers in developing countries (an issue which he didn’t discuss, unfortunately, as his talk is focused on those countries that adopted nuclear power decades ago).
China already has a lot of nuclear construction underway, while Saudi Arabia, South Africa, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia, as well as others, are all being courted by nuclear corporations from Japan, the USA, Russia and France. Citizens in these nations may wish to oppose these nuclear dreams, but to varying degrees they have little or no rights to have a say in decisions. Even in the “advanced democracies,” nuclear schemes were always implemented under secrecy and national security laws. One ray of hope may lie in the fact that the messages of people like Dr. Edwards can reach people in these countries that are being conned by nuclear power development schemers for the first time.
English is the most widely spoken foreign language, but still not many people in non-English speaking countries can follow spoken English on specialized topics such as this. If they have a good knowledge of the English language, it is likely that they still appreciate having subtitles or a transcript in order to comprehend interviews like this one with Gordon Edwards. Having a transcript also makes it possible for translators to create versions in other languages.
Youtube has its automated subtitling feature, but it works with varying levels of accuracy, depending on the speaker. It gave this interview subtitles that were about 80% accurate, but still that 20% inaccuracy led to some ridiculous misinterpretation that rendered the whole thing unreliable. The best solution was to use software called Google2SRT to download the automated subtitles, then revise this file to turn it into an accurate subtitle script (an .srt file that can be put on a Youtube video). Human input is still good for something.
     For this week’s blog entry I painstakingly created the accurate subtitles for the half of my readers who seem to have English as a foreign language. They will be able to learn something useful about the Canadian experience with nuclear energy, and understand why nuclear energy is a technology of the past. Most importantly, they will see that not only is the nuclear energy era over, but what we are facing now is the fact that, in the words of Dr. Edwards, “the age of nuclear waste is really just beginning.” Nations which have been fortunate enough to avoid nuclearization until now would be wise to heed the lessons of those which have been down this sorry road already.

TRANSCRIPT:

     Hi, I’m Gordon Edwards, president of the Canadian Coalition for Nuclear Responsibility. I grew up here in Toronto. My dad was a pharmacist and I went to the University of Toronto and graduated in mathematics, physics and chemistry with a gold medal in mathematics and physics.
At that time, I thought nuclear power was great because the only thing I knew about it was it was safe, clean, cheap and abundant, and as a result I thought, “Hey, this is great. It’s going to save the world.” And in fact that was how it was presented in high school at that time. That was back in the 1950s. But when I graduated from university, I discovered that none of these adjectives were in fact true. It is actually one of the dirtiest technologies that we know.
It creates the most dangerous waste of any industry ever on the face of the planet and this waste is indestructible and remains dangerous for literally millions of years and we don’t know what to do with it except to bury it somewhere and hope that it won’t get out, and that’s not a very good recommendation for a technology. Secondly, it can undergo, as we’ve seen at Chernobyl and Fukushima, it can undergo catastrophic failures and the reason this happens is fundamental. It is because you cannot generate electricity with uranium without simultaneously generating huge quantities of radioactive poisons, and these radioactive poisons are all, you might say, transmutations of the uranium atom.
For example, people have heard about Fukushima. They’ve heard about the poisons that have come out of that: the cesium 137, the iodine 131, the strontium 90, the krypton 85, the plutonium 239. What people don’t always realize is that every one of these elements started off as a uranium atom and most of that uranium came from Canada. In fact, it came from Saskatchewan, went over to Japan, was used as fuel, and was transformed into literally hundreds of different highly radioactive poisonous materials which are then spewed out in event of the accident and are still leaking today from the reactor. They’re still pumping—this is four and a half years after the accident. They’re still pumping almost 400 tons of water a day down into the cores of those melted reactors, the three melted reactors, and then back up to the surface again. By the time they get to the surface they are saturated with these radioactive materials and the water is so radioactive it can’t be released so they’ve stored it in 1,500 tanks, huge tanks, each one containing about 300 tons, and they are building more every week because they need them.
And so this is the legacy of the nuclear industry. Now here in Ontario, and here in Canada we got started into this project through the World War II atomic bomb project. Canada was one of the three countries involved in the project to develop the world’s first atomic weapons. And in fact there was an agreement signed in Quebec in 1943 between President Roosevelt and Prime Minister Churchill at the invitation our prime minister, Mackenzie King at the time, for these three countries to cooperate in building the world’s first atomic bombs. And the reason why Canada was involved is because we had the uranium. The uranium is the key material for all nuclear weapons. There wouldn’t be any nuclear weapons of any description if we didn’t have uranium to start with. So Canada got involved very early and in great secrecy.
CD Howe, who was the power behind the throne in Canada at that time, told parliament that there was a secret project underway and he would appreciate it if nobody asked questions, and so nobody did, and so parliament from that day to this has never really questioned our commitment to nuclear power or to uranium mining in this country.
That’s one of the reasons why in my organization, which was founded in 1970, one of the first things we asked for was for there to be a national debate on the benefits and hazards of nuclear power. We were quite willing to have everything out on the table, both the pluses and the minuses so that people can judge for themselves. That’s never happened in Canada, so what happened is when they started building nuclear reactors in Ontario with the Pickering reactors, in Quebec with the Gentilly reactors, and in New Brunswick with Point Lepreau reactor, nobody knew at that time that the radioactive waste problem was a serious difficulty. Everybody thought that it was just like any industry that has garbage. The garbage men take it away and it’s gone. Nobody thought of it as being a particularly great problem, so my organization was one of the first ones to blow the whistle on this question.
I remember being on television here in Toronto and Morton Shulman, who used to be the coroner of Toronto, and who then had a radio talk show and television talk show, had me on the show along with an executive from Ontario Hydro, and I said, “Well, we have this problem with nuclear waste,” and he asked, “So what’s the problem?” and the Ontario Hydro guy said, “Well, I mean, every industry has waste so I don’t see the problem. We look after our waste better than any other industry I know of.” And Morton Shulman turned back to me and he said, “So what is the problem?” I said, “Well, ask him where we’re going to put it and he turned back and said, “Where are you going to put it?” and the guy went beet red, and he said, “Oh! You don’t know!” And that that’s when really, literally, you might say the shit hit the fan because they had a Royal Commission of Inquiry into nuclear power.
It was actually into electricity planning. It was called the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Electric Power Planning in Ontario and it was called the Porter Commission. It lasted for three years and they devoted a lot of that time into looking at the nuclear question, and they were very impressed by the dangers of this nuclear waste, and I’ll explain a little bit more about the danger in a second, but what they concluded, one of their major conclusions was that unless they can solve this problem by 1985, there shouldn’t be any more nuclear reactors built. This was in 1978 when that report was written. Unless they can solve this nuclear waste problem, there shouldn’t be any more nuclear reactors, and in fact there have not been any new nuclear reactors ordered anywhere in Canada since 1978. So, in fact, we have brought the industry to a standstill simply by asking the question: where are you going to put it? They don’t have a place to put it.
Now why is it so important? Well, the reason why is because they had a chart in this Royal Commission report which showed the toxicity, the danger to humans and to other living organisms of these nuclear wastes, and what they did was they took one year of waste from one CANDU reactor, just one year, one CANDU reactor, and they looked at how dangerous that waste would be after one year, and they said well, since we don’t have a very easy way to measure, let’s ask the following question: how much water would you need to dilute that waste to the maximum level of contamination allowed by law? So how much water would you need? It turns out to be almost exactly equal to Lake Superior. That’s one reactor, one year, and multiply that now by the number of reactors, which is twenty, multiply it by the number years, which is thirty, and you’re talking about 600 Lake Superiors. That’s a lot of Lake Superiors. We don’t have that much water in the whole world, so what they were basically saying is that this material is so dangerous that if 1 percent or 0.1 percent or 0.01 percent of this material leaks into the environment, it’s a disaster. Whereas in most human affairs you’d think that 99.9 percent containment would be wonderful. In this case, it would be a disaster, so that’s what’s fundamentally wrong with nuclear power. It creates poisons that we don’t know how to destroy. Nobody knows how to turn off radioactivity. Nobody knows how to shut it off.
And what is radioactivity? Basically, these atoms that are broken pieces of uranium atoms or else transmuted, heavier-than-uranium atoms like plutonium, these atoms are unstable, which means that they are like little miniature time bombs. They explode and when they explode, they give off damaging subatomic shrapnel which is called atomic radiation, and this exists in three major kinds: alpha, beta and gamma. Alpha and beta are not very penetrating but they’re extremely dangerous inside the body. In fact, they’re much more dangerous than the more penetrating gamma radiation.
Gamma radiation is very dangerous, too. In fact, one fuel bundle, which is about this big. It’s about the size of a log for a fireplace. One of those fuel bundles, before it goes into the reactor, you could look at it and handle it with gloves and it wouldn’t harm you. When that same fuel bundle comes out of the reactor, it would kill any human being standing within one meter’s distance without protection in twenty seconds. So that’s how... and that’s just because of the blast of gamma radiation coming off that spent fuel rod. In fact, those spent fuel rods, those spent fuel bundles when they come out of the reactor, they’ll never be handled by human hands again. They will only be handled robotically, by robots or by remote equipment.
So how did we get into this? How do we build so many nuclear reactors? The fact is people were lied to. They were told that this was a clean, safe, cheap, abundant energy source and that’s what I thought when I was in high school. If that’s all you know about nuclear power, who could possibly be against it? So these were built on false premises, these reactors. And I think now the time has come when people are more and more realizing that this is all a big lie, and that we made a big mistake in swallowing that lie, and going along with it because we trusted the scientists, thinking scientists were sort of like gods. Because they are scientists they are devoted to truth, they are devoted to honesty, and that a scientist would not say anything that was untrue, but they’re forgetting that scientists are human beings, and all human beings are fallible and all human beings have vested interests. If your whole career, and in fact the dream of your career, is really this technology, you can’t afford to tell the whole truth about it.
This is the way the nuclear industry has always behaved. It’s paternalism written with a capital P because they believe that “we scientists, we nuclear scientist, we can, in fact, look after these wastes. We can prevent reactors from exploding. We can prevent all the bad effects. For example, we can prevent these materials from being used in atomic weapons.” In fact, they cannot do this. This is beyond human power.
Because they thought that they were able to control this, they thought that it’s no harm to tell people reassuring lies, to tell people it’s perfectly safe because “we’re going to make it perfectly safe, the waste is not a problem because we’re going to solve it,” but what they were doing was putting on their shoulders a kind of an arrogance that is beyond their powers to actually realize, so we’re now at the showdown stage, and we have countries like Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Sweden and a few other countries who are totally phasing out nuclear power.
Germany had seventeen nuclear reactors. The moment the Fukushima reactor accident happened and after that triple meltdown, they shut down seven of those reactors permanently and they’re in the process of shutting down the remaining ten. By the year 2022 they should have them all shut down.
Here in Canada, although we haven’t said that we’re phasing out nuclear power, in fact, we seem to be because at Pickering, where we had eight nuclear reactors, two of them are now permanently shut down and the other six are going to be shut down by the year 2020, so eight of those reactors are going to be gone permanently by 2020, and even though the government of Ontario has said they’re going to build new reactors, they have not, and they have postponed and postponed it because the cost is absolutely exorbitant.
It turns out that they spent billions of dollars in refurbishing some of the old reactors, and these refurbished reactors are operating at about a percent capacity factor. That means they’re only operating a little more than two-thirds of the time compared with what they’re designed to operate at, so more and more the planners and the government authorities are beginning to catch on to the idea that this is a bad deal, and at the moment we’re trying to convince the government of Ontario, and there already have been talks between the premier of Quebec and the premier of Ontario, one-to-one talks, [suggesting] rather than taking a further risk on refurbishing the Darlington reactors, the four big reactors outside of Toronto at Darlington, rather than refurbishing these at a cost of billions of dollars, why not buy surplus hydro power from Quebec? We’ve got huge surpluses of water-generated hydro power.
Now that was not environmentally innocuous at all—there was a lot of damage done to the environment building those dams, but now that they’re built we do have surplus hydro power. There’s no harm in using that surplus hydro power, as long as it isn’t used to justify more damage of the same kind. In the meantime, Ontario can actually do itself a favor. It would cost far less to buy the surplus hydro power than it would to refurbish those reactors. They can also do Quebec a favor because they are now selling that surplus hydro power to the United States at a loss, and you could also do the people of the country a favor by getting rid of this liability.
Many people still believe that the CANDU reactor is really a good reactor, and it is. It’s really one of the best, but it’s the best of a bad lot. Just because you’re the best of a bad lot doesn’t mean you’re good. The fact of the matter is that a CANDU reactor can melt down just like any other reactor can. It can have catastrophic failures just like any other reactor because the fundamental problem is not the mechanism of the machinery. That’s not the problem. The problem is that while it’s producing electricity it is also creating this enormous inventory of poisons. Anything that disrupts that, whether it’s an earthquake, whether it’s sabotage, whether it’s terrorism, whether it’s an industrial accident, whether it’s an unanticipated explosion, whatever it might be that allows that stuff to leak into the environment is going to create catastrophic results, so it’s fundamental to the technology. It is not based upon the machinery. It’s based on the poisons which are created. So a nuclear reactor is not just a machine for generating electricity. It’s also a warehouse of a fantastically large quantity of radioactive poisons. That’s the fundamental problem.
Would you want to have in your backyard a warehouse full of the most dangerous radioactive poisons you can imagine? And I think the answer is no, we don’t want it. And as a matter of fact even nuclear scientists, for example, I heard Alvin Weinberg, one of the deans of nuclear energy—he was the head of the Oak Ridge nuclear division down in the United States which developed the first enriched uranium atomic bomb—and he said we nuclear scientists—this was back in 1977 even before Three Mile Island—he said that we nuclear scientists have made a big mistake in thinking that nuclear power is just another form of generating electricity. We should not be building these near large cities at all. Now he was pro-nuclear. He said we should build them but we should build them behind a wall which society is shut off from, and this wall should be a very large and it should include a lot of waterfront so that we can have enough water to run the reactors, and that’s where the reactors will melt down into the ground, and he didn’t think about the fact that this stuff will come over the wall and contaminate the food supply, but he thought that it was definitely a mistake to build these reactors.
Look at what we have done here in Ontario. We’ve built reactors right along the shores of the Great Lakes. Can you imagine anything more stupid? Because if you look at what’s happening at Fukushima right now all the water that’s pouring into the Pacific Ocean from the Fukushima reactors. Imagine if that wasn’t the Pacific Ocean but only the Great Lakes. We would be contaminating the water supply for forty million people, and not just for one generation but for several generations to come. So it seems that people are beginning to wake up and realize that this is not the way to go.
Although Canada was the world’s largest supplier of uranium in the early years, up until 1965, all of our uranium production… from 1942 to 1965 there was a tremendous amount of uranium mined in Canada, and it was all for bombs. It all went into nuclear weapons. There were military contracts. In fact, that was the only market there was for it. We also, by the way, sold all of our plutonium for bombs to the United States from the Chalk River reactors that we built. Then in 1965 Prime Minister Pearson said from now on we’re only going to be selling uranium for peaceful purposes.
Well, it sounds good but the problem is when you sell uranium for peaceful purposes, what happens to it? You put it into a nuclear reactor, the uranium atoms get chopped up and create all these poisons we talked about, but some of the uranium atoms actually absorb a neutron to become a little heavier, and they turn into a substance called plutonium which has a 24,000-year half-life and which is the nuclear explosive that is most useful in all nuclear weapons. There isn’t any nuclear weapon that doesn’t use uranium or plutonium, and every atom of plutonium starts off as an atom of uranium.
So here in Canada, even though we are thought of worldwide as being like the Saudi Arabia of uranium, in terms of how much uranium we have in, for example, the province of Saskatchewan, we already have two provinces that have banned uranium mining altogether: British Columbia has declared a permanent ban. There will never be uranium mining in the province of British Columbia. By the way, way back in around 1980, it was the British Columbia Medical Association who led the charge on that particular score, although there were many other people who played a role in it—the fruit Growers Association, the Landowners Association, the Small Business Association—an amazing agglomeration of different segments of society which brought about that moratorium which was originally a temporary moratorium but now it’s become a permanent one.
In Nova Scotia we had a ban on uranium mining declared in 1985 which again was a temporary ban which extended right up until a couple of years ago and when it was made into a permanent law. And so now it’s illegal in Nova Scotia to even explore for uranium, and by the way, if you’re exploring for something else and you happen to come across uranium, you’ve got to stop. That’s according to the law.
Right now in Quebec we have a temporary moratorium on uranium mining and we’re hoping—in fact we’re just at the end of a process of a public hearing, a year of public hearings on uranium mining in Quebec. We’re hoping that the Quebec government—the first government to phase out nuclear power completely in North America—will ban uranium mining also from Quebec.
So we’re waiting to hear from that, but in April of this year we had an international symposium on uranium with people coming from Australia, from China, from Mongolia, from Europe and from Africa, and from all over the United States and Canada to meet together and have three days of intense discussions about uranium. Out of that symposium came an international declaration calling... and again led by the physicians... the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW)—they won the Nobel Prize Peace Prize in 1985—and they have the led the way on this, calling for a worldwide ban on uranium mining.
They’re saying that like asbestos, which we have found to be such a dangerous mineral that it should really be left in the ground altogether, there’s no way you should mine asbestos. Yes, it’s natural. So is arsenic, but arsenic is actually safer to mine than asbestos is. So asbestos should just be left in the ground, and uranium is of the same character, even more so. Asbestos threatens the health of anybody who comes in contact with it. Uranium threatens the entire planet. It threatens the entire survival of the planet, in terms of its ultimate use in nuclear weapons, and even when you use it for peaceful purposes, it breeds the material which can be used for the next ten thousand years, twenty thousand years, 100,000 years for nuclear weapons, so we’re calling for a ban on uranium mining worldwide, and we don’t think this is pie-in-the-sky. We think this is just plain common sense.
Of course that doesn’t mean that it solves the problems that are already there, but it means that you have put a cap on them. We talk about putting a cap on carbon emissions, so let’s put a cap on a weapons of mass destruction. And of course the main weapon of mass destruction really is not chemical weapons, bacteriological weapons—horrible as they are—but nuclear weapons which include all the worst characteristics of those two together with further dangers.
It’s been calculated by the same scientists who work on climate change, using the same models that are used in climate change, that if you were to have an exchange of nuclear weapons. (They like to use the word “exchange” ... “Would you like to have my nuclear weapon?” “Oh, good thank you. I’ll take one of yours...”) If you had a war involving only a few dozen nuclear weapons on each side, this would affect the entire northern hemisphere and cause a nuclear winter which would mean that it would be impossible to grow food, and it would have devastating consequences for the entire northern hemisphere. That’s a small nuclear war. If you had a big nuclear war, it’s totally game over much faster, and not only human civilization is gone but most higher forms of life as well. So why would you want to bring that material to the surface?
Let’s just think about it for a moment. What is uranium needed for? What is uranium used for. Well, basically, you can count them on the fingers on one hand, and have extra fingers left over. Nuclear weapons is the only use for uranium which absolutely requires uranium. With no uranium there’s no nuclear weapons. OK, so that’s number one. Number two is electricity generation, but we have many ways to produce electricity. We’ve got wind power, we’ve got solar energy, we’ve got hydro power, we’ve got...even peddling your bicycle generates electricity. Turning a wheel will generate electricity... and geothermal power. So uranium is not really needed for electricity. It is just one of many ways, and we don’t really need it.
As matter fact, the contribution of nuclear to electricity production worldwide has declined steadily since 1995. In 1995, it was about seventeen percent of world electricity that was produced by nuclear. Now it’s down to eleven percent and still falling.
In fact, even the most optimistic pro-nuclear people are admitting that nuclear will continue to decline in importance for the next twenty to thirty years at least because no matter how many new reactors you build, they’re going to be shutting down the old ones faster than they can build the new ones. Most of them are old and most of them are falling apart, and they’re being shutdown much faster. So there’s no way that nuclear power can make a dent in global warming in the time frame were talking about.
On the other hand, if you take a look at the specific examples such as Germany...Germany decided basically that while...especially since 2011... they’ve decided to phase out nuclear power. In only eight years, they built 30,000 megawatts of wind power. Now that’s twice the entire installed capacity of nuclear power in Canada:15,000 megawatts. If all the reactors were running and producing at top capacity, we’d have 15,000 megawatts of nuclear electricity. Germany built 30,000 megawatts of wind power in eight years. There’s no way you could build that amount of nuclear power in eight years. It’s impossible.
When you think about it, you realize... let’s imagine that you could build, 30,000 megawatts of nuclear in eight years, and during that entire eight years you would have no benefit. In fact, you would be adding to global warming because building the concrete structures, mining the uranium, refining the uranium, enriching uranium—greenhouse gases would be emitted big-time in building these reactors. You would get no electricity until after the eight years was done. Then you would start producing electricity. With wind power you build some windmills now and you get immediate benefits. Next year you get more, next year you get more, next year more, more, more, and after eight years you build your way up to 30,000 megawatts, but you’re getting benefits all the way along the line, so you can see the difference here is that these renewables are much more flexible, they’re light on their feet. They are like boxers that can, you know, float like a butterfly sting like a bee. And they can sort of solve the problem whereas nuclear is lumbering along and is really unable to respond quickly enough to make a difference.
There’s another thing, too. If after a while you decide you don’t like those windmills, what do you do? Take them down. No problem. You can’t do that with nuclear power. By the time a nuclear reactor is finished or you decide you don’t want it, you’re stuck with it because it’s a radioactive hulk, even after you take the nuclear waste out of it, the structure itself is so radioactive you have to let it cool off for about forty years and then you have to dismantle it, and all the rubble becomes radioactive waste. So you end up with a huge cost in the future even after all the benefits have been squandered. So you don’t have that with any other energy technology that I’m aware of, so that’s where I think that that simple economics combined with simple common sense combined with a real sense of responsibility to the future is combining to really put an end to the nuclear age.
I have to warn people, though, that while the nuclear age in terms of nuclear energy may be winding down, the age of nuclear waste is really just beginning, and people are going to have to get more involved, not less involved, more involved to make sure that these wastes are handled properly and that doesn’t mean abandoning them. What the industry wants to do is to abandon these wastes. They want to dig a hole, put them down a hole and then tiptoe away and say, “There, that’s done,” and of course it’s not done. Those wastes are there and they’re going to remain dangerous for millions of years, or certainly hundreds of thousands of years and they want to put these right beside the Great Lakes right now. They’re talking about building a deep geological repository less than a mile from Lake Huron. That’s about 1.5 kilometers, and so people are fighting this not out of a sense of fear, but a sense of responsibility. We don’t feel that it’s ethical or scientifically justified to abandon these wastes because nobody knows, if you put them down there, whether they’re going to stay there.
They could very well leak out over the hundred thousand years of danger that they admit to, but when they say a hundred thousand years they’re talking about plutonium which has a 24,000-year half-life and when you multiply that by ten you get 240,000, so there’s your hundred thousand years. The reason you multiply by ten is because it takes ten half-lives to get it reduced by a factor of a thousand. But what they don’t think about, even the people the nuclear industry, who should know better, or at least they don’t want to admit it, is that when plutonium disintegrates because it’s unstable, it turns into another element which is radioactive for seven hundred million years, and so in fact it doesn’t disappear. It transforms into something else which is even longer-lived than plutonium itself.
What’s happening here is that when you start totaling up the benefits you find out that nuclear power can’t do the job. When you total up the costs you figure out that they’re never-ending, and by the way that’s why they want to bury them and abandon them. It’s so that they can cut their liability, so the corporation can draw a line and say we’re no longer liable because we have quote-unquote “disposed of this.”
They thought they had disposed of poison gas in the Black Sea until it started bubbling up to the surface again after a while. Dow Chemical in Sarnia [Ontario, Canada] thought that they had disposed of chemicals that they’d injected deep into underground holes until they came up in the St. Clair River as toxic blobs in the sediment, and we’ve heard about various other incidents where, you know, the Love Canal [Niagara Falls, New York State] where there were toxic waste dumps which have come back to haunt people and really endanger the lives of people.
     So this is where we’re at, and I think that we’re at a very good juncture because people are awakening, and people are realizing that they have been misled. They were taught that nuclear power was essential. They find out that not only is it not essential to have nuclear power but rather it is essential to get rid of it.

Dr. Gordon Edwards
Toronto, Canada
July 25, 2015

2015/08/12

A Rescript for the Termination of Nuclear Energy

Over the past six months, Japan has marked several famous anniversaries that occurred during the tragic months leading up to defeat in WWII: the bombing of Tokyo in March, the Battle of Okinawa in June, the atomic bombings in early August, and the surrender on August 15th. During this time, the hawkish government of Prime Minister Abe has re-interpreted the constitution so as to allow Japanese military forces to fight outside of Japanese territory, and it has been pushing steadily to restart nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, the Emperor has been traveling often, domestically and internationally, to express messages of regret for wartime aggression and dedication to the cause of peace. The Emperor is not allowed to comment on government policy, so some have wondered if this effort is a veiled attempt to work against Prime Minister Abe and strengthen the nation’s commitment to pacifism. [1]
One could also wonder if he may be having some private thoughts about how the crisis in the nuclear energy sector resembles the nation’s irrational gamble on war in the 1940s. Most of the military and political leadership knew in 1941 that war with America would end in ruin, yet because of a rotating cast of reckless deciders, and leaders who refused to lead and halt the madness, the government drifted toward Pearl Harbor. Once the war had begun, the sunk costs made it impossible to surrender no matter how obvious it was that Japan could never win. [2]
In the same way, it is quite obvious to anyone who is paying attention that you can’t have a corrupt and derelict nucleocracy operating fifty nuclear reactors on a small land mass of earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis and typhoons, and leave all the accumulated nuclear waste (which is also bomb fuel) piling up with no way to dispose of it. It is a crime against nature and future generations, an insult to neighboring countries, and a betrayal of Japan’s commitments to non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. It is just as suicidal and irrational as the determination to keep fighting a war that was lost from the day it was declared.
The Abe government wants to resume operating nuclear power plants in a vain hope to recover the sunk costs and to supposedly “stimulate the economy” by selling this dirty technology to the developing world. The dead-ender military men of 1945 wanted to keep fighting, on empty stomachs and fuel tanks, against both a Soviet and American invasion, along with the prospect of a continuing rain of nuclear bombs. For them a national mass suicide seemed to be preferable. They descended on the palace on August 14th to launch a coup, and the vinyl recording of the Imperial Rescript on the Termination of the War had to be smuggled out in a women’s laundry hamper to be broadcast over the radio.
The irony nowadays is that in the nuclear dilemma there is no one to compare to the few men who had the sense to find a way to surrender. There is no monarch with constitutional powers to step in and make the decision that would avoid a greater catastrophe. I have to wonder if the Emperor has ever wished he could walk over to NHK studios and deliver a speech like the one his father gave on August 15, 1945. I’ve got the draft of it all ready to go (see below).
It is easy to read the surrender speech of 1945 and be dismayed by the evasion of unpleasant topics, such as the recent Soviet invasion of Manchuria, or we can laugh at the understatement of phrases such as “the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan’s advantage.” But in seriousness I suggest it may be just this sort of face-saving language that we should look to as a shining example of a way out of our modern world war that is our destruction of nature. I look forward to the day when the five members of the UN Security Council might muster the courage to make similar admissions. Self-deception can get us into vicious circles of tragic errors, but along with plenty of evasion, euphemism and face-saving lies, it can also provide a way out.

(玉音放送 gyokuon-hōsō, Jewel Voice Broadcast)
Imperial Rescript on the Termination of Nuclear Energy (draft proposal, final decision still pending)
To our good and loyal subjects: After pondering deeply on the general trend of the world and the actual conditions pertaining to our Empire today, we have decided to effect a settlement of the present situation by resorting to an extraordinary measure. We have ordered our government to inform the government of the United States, Britain, China, and the Soviet Union that our Empire accepts the provisions of their joint declaration (the Potsdam declaration).
To strive for the common prosperity and happiness of all nations, as well as for the security and well-being of our subjects, is the solemn obligation which has been handed down by our Imperial ancestors and which lies close to our heart. Indeed, we declared war on America and Britain out of our sincere desire to ensure Japan’s self-preservation and the stabilization of East Asia, it being far from our thought either to infringe upon the sovereignty of other nations or to embark upon territorial aggrandizement. But now the war has lasted for nearly four years. Although the best has been done by everyone—the gallant fighting of the military and naval forces, the diligence and assiduity of our servants of the state, and the devoted service of our hundred million people—the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan’s advantage, while the general trends of the world have all turned against her interests.
The enemy, moreover, has begun to employ a new most cruel bomb, the power which to do damage is indeed incalculable, taking toll of many innocent lives. Should we continue to fight, it would only result in the ultimate collapse and obliteration of the Japanese nation . . . but would lead also to the total extinction of human civilization. Such being the case, how are we to save millions of our subjects, or ourselves, to atone before the hallowed spirits of our Imperial ancestors? This is the reason we have ordered the acceptance of the provisions of the joint declaration of the Powers.
We cannot but express the deepest sense of regret to our allied nations of East Asia, who have consistently cooperated with the Empire toward the emancipation of East Asia. The thought of those officers and men who have fallen on the field of battle, of those who have died at their posts of duty, or those who have met with untimely death, and of their bereaved families, pains our heart night and day. The welfare of the wounded and war victims and of those who have lost their homes and livelihood are objects of our profound solicitude. The hardships and sufferings to which our nation is to be subjected hereafter will certainly be great.
We are keenly aware of the inmost feelings of all our subjects. However, it is according to the dictates of time and fate that we come by enduring the unendurable and suffering what is insufferable. Having been able to save and maintain the structure of the Imperial State, we are always with you, our good and loyal subjects, relying upon your sincerity and integrity. Beware most strictly least any outburst of emotion, which may engender needless complications, or any fraternal contention and strife, which may create confusion, lead you astray and cause you to lose confidence of the world. Let the entire nation continue as one family from generation to generation, ever firm in its faith in the imperishability of its divine land, and mindful of its heavy burden of responsibilities and the long road before it. Devote your united strength to construction for the future. Cultivate ways of rectitude, further nobility of spirit, and work with resolution, so that you may enhance the innate glory of the Imperial State and keep pace with the progress of the world.
To our good and loyal subjects: After pondering deeply on the general trend of the world and the actual conditions pertaining to our nation today, we have decided to effect a settlement of the present situation by resorting to an extraordinary measure. We have ordered our government to inform the International Atomic Energy Agency that we accept the provisions of our citizens opposed to our further production of nuclear energy and so-called "nuclear waste."
To strive for the common prosperity and happiness of all nations, as well as for the security and well-being of our subjects, is the solemn obligation which has been handed down by our ancestors and which lies close to our heart. Indeed, we have recklessly endangered the natural world with our energy policy, it being far from our thought either to infringe upon the rights of others to live in an unspoiled environment, or to embark upon aggrandizement at the expense of future generations. But now we have been on this path for nearly sixty years. Although the best has been done by everyone—the gallant efforts of our engineers, scientists, corporate leaders, the diligence and assiduity of our servants of the state, and the devoted service of our hundred twenty million people—the nuclear catastrophe situation has developed not necessarily to Japan’s advantage, while the general trends of renewable energy technologies have all turned against our interests.
Our competitors, moreover, have begun to employ a new and most innovative technology, the power of which to not do damage is indeed incalculable, taking no toll of many innocent lives. Should we continue to create plutonium, it would only result in the ultimate collapse and obliteration of the Japanese nation . . . but could lead also to the total extinction of human civilization. Such being the case, how are we to save millions of our subjects, or ourselves, to atone before the hallowed spirits of our ancestors? This is the reason we have ordered this radical departure from our established policy.
We cannot but express the deepest sense of regret to our citizens, and other nations of the world, who have consistently cooperated with us since the great disasters of the year 2011. The thought of those people who lost their lives, their loved ones or their homes, of those who were terrified and harmed by radiation spreading throughout the world, pains our heart night and day. The welfare of those who have lost their homes and livelihood are objects of our profound solicitude. The hardships and sufferings to which our nation is to be subjected hereafter would certainly be great if we were to continue down our erroneous path.
We are keenly aware of the inmost feelings of all our subjects. However, it is according to the dictates of time and fate that we come by changing what we thought unchangeable and suffering what is actually bearable. Having been able to save and maintain the structure of the state, we are always with you, our good and loyal subjects, relying upon your sincerity and integrity. Beware most strictly least any outburst of emotion, which may engender needless complications, or any fraternal contention and strife, which may create confusion, lead you astray and cause you to lose confidence of the world. Let the entire nation continue as one family from generation to generation, ever firm in its faith in the imperishability of its divine land, and mindful of its heavy burden of responsibilities and the long road before it. Devote your united strength to construction for the future. Cultivate ways of rectitude, further nobility of spirit, and work with resolution, so that you may enhance the innate glory of our land and keep pace with the progress of the world.

Notes

[1] Emperor prodded Abe with WWII ‘remorse’ remark, The Japan Times, June 5, 2015. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/06/05/national/politics-diplomacy/emperor-prodded-abe-wwii-remorse-remark-commentator/#.VcoLXFSqpBd

[2] Eri Hotta, 1941: Countdown to Infamy (Vintage, 2014). See location 543/7672, Kindle edition:

“Japan’s fateful decision to go to war can best be understood as a huge national gamble. Social factors made the gamble harder for the leaders to resist, but their final decision to take the plunge was a conscious one. Believing that Europeans fighting Hitler had left their colonial possessions relatively unguarded, some bellicose strategists in the military planning bodies effectively pushed their aggressive proposals forward, convincing their superiors that the more time they took, the fewer resources they would have left to fight with and the more the United States would gain to prepare for what was in their minds an “inevitable” clash—a geopolitical necessity to determine the leader of the Asia-Pacific region… Objectively speaking, it was a reckless strategy of enabling a war by acquiring new territories to feed and fund that war… Not everyone gave up completely on a diplomatic settlement with the United States until fairly late, but nobody was ready to assume responsibility for Japan’s “missing the bus,” in a popular expression of the time, to gain strategic advantage… An unlikely Japanese victory was predicated entirely on external conditions… that were beyond Japan’s control, such as wishful scenarios of the United States quickly suing for peace or of Nazi Germany conquering Europe.”