2012/01/22

Chernobyl: Crime without Punishment - Disturbing parallels between Chernobyl and Fukushima


Book Review
Chernobyl: Crime without Punishment by Alla, A. Yaroshinskaya

The Chernobyl catastrophe was largely forgotten and dismissed by the world as soon as the smoldering mess was contained in the famous sarcophagus, but those who have paid attention to the issue since then have been aware of the strangely divergent views of the human toll of the disaster. One view claims that a million people have died prematurely, and millions more have had their health ruined, while the other side says there was only a small increase in cancer deaths and “generally positive prospects for the future health of most individuals should prevail.” [1]
If anyone still doubts the more pessimistic view, they need only read the recently published Chernobyl: Crime Without Punishment to lay the question to rest. [2] This is a translation of a book written by Ukrainian journalist, politician and winner of the 1992 Right Livelihood Award, Alla A. Yaroshinskaya. In this powerful condemnation of injustices suffered by Chernobyl victims for the past quarter century, the author provides volumes of evidence about their suffering–and it is the kind of evidence that should really be emphasized over other types that serve the interests of the nuclear industry. The experiences of the victims and witnesses reveal the health effects of what may be the world’s worst radiological catastrophe (there are other contenders for this prize).
Scientists can debate among themselves whether small amounts of radiation stimulate genetic repair, or make positive changes to chromosome telomeres, but anyone who chooses to “remember his humanity, and forget the rest” (to quote the famous line on this topic pronounced by Albert Einstein and Bertrand Russell) will be convinced by the corroborating evidence given by millions of victims. Doubting these accounts is a little like denying what occurred in Germany and Eastern Europe in the 1940s. The evidence may be dismissed as “anecdotal” by researchers in the hard sciences, but not in the social sciences where witness testimony is a legitimate and indispensable type of evidence, and a radiological disaster is something that rightly deserves to be studied as a sociological phenomenon. Ms. Yaroshinskaya’s writing demonstrates that it is time to get over the senseless false controversy about the effects of nuclear accidents and look squarely in the eyes of people affected.
This is an important book that should be translated into Japanese so that Japan might be able to reverse the harm that has been done by successive government failures to deal with the Fukushima Daiichi meltdowns. This book also clears up some of the misunderstandings about the Soviet handling of the situation.
Since the Fukushima Daiichi catastrophe, many critics of the Japanese government have pointed to the evacuation of Pripyat in 1986 as a model of effective government response. They ask why a communist government did so much better than a supposedly advanced and wealthy democracy. This view would amuse Ms. Yaroshinskaya. The truth is that the Soviet disaster was a much larger contamination–most of it fell on land; whereas in Fukushima, 70-80% of it fell on the ocean, and it differed in other ways that make it worse in some respects. The evacuation of Pripyat came too late, and in Kiev, only 100 kilometers away, the regular May Day parade was held a few days after the explosion in a cloud of heavy radiation, as if in an x-ray machine, as the author puts it. While high party officials waved to the crowds, their loved ones had been spirited away to safer locations. One scientist quoted in the book estimated that 15,000 dying victims were turned away from Kiev hospitals in the days after the explosion, never to be officially recognized as radiation victims.
After the establishment of the permanent exclusion zone, it became obvious that large parts of Ukraine, Belarus and southern Russia were of questionable fitness for habitation, but the people on these lands were ignored and essentially left to their own devices. There would be no further evacuations. The city of Gomel, Belarus (population 480,000, a sort of “sister city” of Fukushima City) and the surrounding region are still dotted with zones of the highest contamination levels, and some scientists believe the gene pool of the population has been permanently damaged.
Ms. Yaroshinskaya presents the victims’ cases in their own voices, and what emerges are stories that resemble the experiences of rape victims. First there is an assault on the body (by radiation) then there are the insults and humiliation experienced in the pursuit of justice. A typical letter is this one:

I am not yet 32 years old, but I find myself in a hospital bed several times a year. And all of my four children (under 12) are also ill most of the time (they feel weak and listless, they have joint pains in arms and legs, their hemoglobin is below normal, they have enlarged thyroid and lymph nodes, headaches, stomach pains, constant colds). And it is the same in every family. We want to live. We want our kids to live and grow up healthy, and have a future. But through heartlessness, callousness and cruelty of those on whom our lives and the lives of our children depend, we are condemned to the worst possible fate, and we are only too well aware of that... We have had to eat, drink and breathe radiation for years, waiting for our last day.
- Valentina Nikolaevna Okhremchuk,
mother of four little boys, speaking for all the mothers of Olevshchina


One might say that one letter like this would prove nothing, but the fact is that there were hundreds of them signed by thousands of petitioners sharing the same experiences, so the narrative becomes impossible to deny.
As a victim herself who was living in an area of heavy fallout, the author pursued the story as a journalist immediately after the disaster. She made unauthorized and clandestine trips to the villages where people were living on contaminated soil, and there she collected their stories. At a time when photocopiers were scarce, and accessible only with official approval, she spread the word via hand-typed copies through a network of sympathetic supporters–a way of evading the censorship of the era known as samizdat. When the glasnost period advanced, she was elected to the The Congress of People’s Deputies, the first democratically elected body that was created during Gorbachev’s glasnost and perestroika (openness, reform) period. During her work as a journalist and a politician, she collected the letters that her readers and constituents sent to her. They begged for justice and relief from living in a radioactive environment.
These letters are heart-wrenching testimony to the contemptuous neglect that victims suffered at the hands of their governments, as well as the scientists and doctors who defended the official view that claims of declining health were caused by “radiophobia” and the social factors that came with the decline of the Soviet Union.
In the aftermath of the disaster, residents in contaminated zones were quickly relocated, and there were hasty decisions made about where to rebuild. Money flowed to construction projects, new villages sprang up, and only then they discovered that this land too was almost as contaminated as the towns that had been evacuated. This was in the days before one could buy a cheap, hand-held Geiger counter. Even qualified scientists needed government permission to take measurements, so these villagers were at the mercy of a government that wished they didn’t exist.
The one saving grace of the Fukushima disaster is that it happened in the age of the Internet and inexpensive radiation detectors. Some Japanese legislators made vain calls to make it illegal for citizens to measure radiation, but nothing came of it.
One subgroup of relocated citizens was the staff of the Chernobyl power plant itself. Incredibly, two other reactors on the site remained in operation until the year 2000, and staff commuted to the plant every day to work in the radioactive environment. The former company town of Pripyat was evacuated and a new town was built in Slavutich, but it too was on contaminated land and not fit for normal life. Outdoor recreation was not possible, and workers felt sick and demoralized.
By late 1980s, the Soviet Union was unraveling, money for relocation had been exhausted, and no one in official positions wanted to admit to past mistakes and fix them. In addition, promises of “clean” food supplies were broken. During periods of shortages and inflation, the allowances given for buying this clean food became an insult to the recipients. There was no clean food to buy, and if there had been, it would have been unaffordable. The food allowance became known as a pittance of “coffin money.”
Another category of victim was made up of the 800,000 liquidators who battled the reactor fire and built the structure that sealed off the danger from the environment. Chernobyl is regarded now as a war, and the liquidators are rightly referred to as veterans of an epic struggle against a new kind of enemy. They are undoubtedly responsible for saving all of the Eurasian landmass from becoming uninhabitable. These young men and women answered the call to save their country without hesitation (but they were conscripted and didn’t have a choice anyway), and one would think that the just reward would have been guaranteed hero status, disability pension, and health care with special provisions for the effects of radiation that they would suffer. Such benefits were promised, but in reality the Chernobyl veterans were for the most part betrayed. A population of this size, exposed to high levels of radiation, could have provided valuable knowledge about the effects of nuclear accidents, but the veterans were ignored by official studies inside and outside of the former Soviet Union.
The common understanding of radiation effects predicted that the Chernobyl liquidators would get cancer at some time decades later, but instead the most common observation was generalized premature aging. Men who went into battle in the prime of their youth were dying ten years later from heart attacks and strokes. They suffered from immune and digestive disorders–a general decline in every aspect of biological function. Since these disorders could be classified as health conditions normally found in the general population, the official stance was that they were not related to radiation exposure. Complaints were dismissed as “radiophobia,” and declines in health were linked to the social upheaval and economic decline of the times. One victim quoted in the book snarled sarcastically that yes, he was getting “radiophobia.” He was afraid to turn on the radio and listen to the nonsense spouted from official media sources.
The truth is something that is known by people who have a theory of human nature that says all people want dignity, health and the chance to contribute to society. These victims and veterans, like all people, did not want to live life as moochers. They wanted to work with the same vigor they put into working the land, or (in the case of the liquidators) into resolving the crisis at the reactor. Rather than having a fear of radiation, they waved it off with bravado until it was too late to save their health.
As protest movements gathered strength in the 1990s, governments were forced to listen to complaints of victims and veterans, but still they gained little. At one time, a cynical move was made to monetize the meager benefits that these groups received. Instead of guaranteeing them defined benefits such as free transportation, free medical exams and so on, the value of these benefits would be pegged to a monetary value and paid out on a regular schedule. In a time of high inflation and rapid economic change, the ruse was obvious. Without a guaranteed index that defined benefits, the monetizaton scheme was just a way to get beneficiaries off the government ledgers.
Ms. Yaroshinskaya concludes that the victims in the villages and the Chernobyl veterans were totally marginalized and abandoned by successive governments. She condemns the villains, and has a willingness to name names and describe them with the vitriol she thinks they deserve. She points out the essential fact that what little the victims managed to gain was won only when the movement grew strong enough to turn into solidarity strikes all over Belarus, Ukraine and Russia. One has to wonder if Japan, the apparently prosperous, developed democracy, would be capable of mounting a solidarity strike to support the families in Fukushima who want to evacuate.
As I write this after having watched Japan in the aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi catastrophe, Ms. Yaroshinskaya’s book reads like a manual of how a society reacts to a large-scale nuclear accident. So much is unfolding in Japan exactly as it did in the Soviet Union. I have the feeling that she has described a situation that will play out wherever there is a nuclear accident in the future, so readers can learn from this and know what to expect if it strikes close to home.
With four hundred nuclear reactors still in service on the planet, most of them nearing the end of their lifespans, and few countries following Germany’s lead to shut down nuclear power, it’s a safe bet to say that somewhere in the next decades there will be one or more major accidents. What’s it going to take to make people understand we can’t manage this technology? Chernobyl and Fukushima (as well as numerous lesser accidents at mines, processing facilities and military and experimental reactors) should have been enough, but it seems like an accident will have to happen near a place that counts for global power holders: Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, London, Paris. Note to Japan, content to have bought into enriched uranium technology and General Electric reactor design: In case you haven’t figured it out, you still don’t matter in this sense.
The list below shows some of the parallels between the Soviet and Japanese responses to their nuclear disasters:

1.  In the initial days there is lying, misinformation, and a deliberate attempt to avoid causing a panic.

2.  Data on fallout, wind direction and so on is gathered but kept secret. Government claims to have experienced breakdowns and chaotic conditions that made data collection impossible.

3.  Reports go out that potassium iodide has been given to the population at risk, but in fact most people who need it don’t get it.

4.  The legal tolerance level for radiation is increased.

5.  Leadership is surprisingly ignorant about the science and the pre-existing state of the nation’s reactors. Government seems impotent, incompetent, paralyzed and unable to direct resources to the problem.

6.  Evacuation is delayed, then months or years later residents are pressured to return to contaminated land. Officials go into deep denial about the extent of the damage and pour resources into hopeless efforts at decontamination and remediation.

7.  National wealth is invested in restoring communities in contaminated areas, then when this mistake is realized, governments cannot acknowledge it.

8.  The solution to pollution is dilution. Radioactive debris and food are diluted and spread far and wide to all corners of the country.

9.  There is no large-sum settlement fee offered to those who want to resettle far away. Surviving family members of the victims of the collapse of the World Trade Center in New York received million-dollar settlements that allowed them to restart their lives, but there is no such compensation after a nuclear disaster. Instead, various cynical schemes like vouchers and monthly allotments are slowly dripped out in such a way as to tie impoverished people to the land that the government wants to declare “remediated.”

10. Funds donated by individuals are misappropriated and used in ways that would outrage the donors. The funds raised by the first public charity ever allowed in the USSR were redirected away from victims then put toward funding visits by foreign scientists who were ushered through the disaster zones by officially appointed obfuscators. In Fukushima, funds from the German Red Cross are being used to build a kindergarten in one of the highly contaminated towns just outside the exclusion zone. [3]

11. Reactor designers, electrical utility management and regulators will attempt to escape liability and prosecution, usually with success. In the case of Chernobyl, station staff were scapegoated and sent to jail, but no one else was prosecuted for the ultimate causes of the accident or the failure afterwards to protect citizens.

12. Scientific and medical opinion is controlled through state support to such an extent that the official conclusions become unassailable. The disaster is declared to have had overall minimal effects on public health, and this becomes the consensus view accepted throughout the world, including by United Nations agencies. Numerous Japanese “experts” on Chernobyl visited the area repeatedly, but their interpretations of the catastrophe were shaped by the state-sponsored scientific and medical community that filtered their interpretations. When disaster struck Fukushima, these misinformed experts repeated the insulting references to radiophobia, and they were put in charge of managing the public health crisis and leading the government’s public relations campaign. [4]

13. In the absence of efficient measures to protect the public and compensate all losses, citizens are left to fight among themselves over their rights. Mothers claim the right to compensated evacuation, while farmers, bankers and businesses demand that everyone should stay, buy the local food and support the local economy. Husbands and wives split up over disputes about the risks. The old want to stay and the young want to leave. Senior citizens complain that their grandchildren don’t want to visit anymore. The pressure to keep children (the most vulnerable people to radiation) on the land is particularly cruel, but essential for those who want to revive the economy of the area. They know that without children communities will decline. 

14. There is a deep, widespread denial of the nuclear disaster’s ability to destroy the environment and the social fabric, and society is helped along in this delusion by the global nuclear industry and the United Nations. (Ironically, the Japanese state media, NHK, actually covered this in a 1996 report condemning the IAEA adoption of the official Soviet lie.) [5]

15. The market talks and bullshit walks. Capitalism is all about freedom and free markets after all. The post-Soviet republics became capitalist and Japan is supposedly capitalist, too. In spite of hypocritical efforts by the government to be a command economy in this instance, forcing people to live on contaminated land, people are free to move away, and they do. Despite efforts to restore the area, it develops a stigma that lasts for a long, long time. Economic decline is inevitable, and it is recognized too late that the money spent on restoration should have been spent on helping people relocate.

16. Just as Chernobyl was a major cause of the collapse of the Soviet system, the meltdowns in Fukushima may play a part, or be a symptom of, fundamental problems with modern capitalism.

Chernobyl: Crime Without Punishment is an essential, powerful wake-up call to the human race to pull out of its state of denial over global nuclear hazards. Chernobyl was supposed to have been “the final warning,” but we’ll have to say this now about Fukushima. One line that stuck with me after putting the book down was a Russian proverb that Ms. Yaroshinskaya uses to comment on the neglect of Chernobyl victims: Deception can take you wherever you want to go, but it can’t bring you back. It applies equally to self-deception. Keep that in mind if you think the nuclear waste scattered over the planet–some of it “safely” contained in temporary storage, some of it in the soil and water, some in your bones–is an issue we can afford to ignore once again.


[1] UNSCEAR 2008 Report to the General Assembly, Volume II, Scientific Annexes C, D and E, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, 2008, http://www.unscear.org/unscear/en/publications/2008_2.html .
In 2008, the United Nations report on the Chernobyl disaster confirmed the findings of its own 2000 report. It denies contrary reports that Chernobyl had serious health consequences for millions of people living in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. At one point the authors acknowledge studies showing that liquidators suffered increased rates of cardiovascular and neurological diseases, but they dismiss such findings simply because they contradict previous research. By such logic, Einstein was wrong because he contradicted Newton. The report concludes with these words: “The vast majority of the population were exposed to low levels of radiation comparable, at most, to few times the annual natural background radiation levels and need not live in fear of serious health consequences [As usual with UN reports, the complaints of internal radiation damage are completely ignored]. This is true for the populations of the three countries most affected by the Chernobyl accident, Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine… Lives have been disrupted by the Chernobyl accident, but from the radiological point of view, generally positive prospects for the future health of most individuals should prevail.”

[2] Alla, A. Yaroshinskaya, Chernobyl: Crime without Punishment (London: Transaction Publishers, 2011).

[3] “Donation via German Red Cross Used to Build Library, Nursery School for Evacuees in Koriyama City in Fukushima,” EXSKF, January 12, 2012,
This blog post includes a translation of an article published by Kyodo News which is no longer online. The article gave this information about the use of the donated funds from Germany: “A facility with the library room and the nursery school opened on January 6 in the temporary housing in Koriyama City in Fukushima Prefecture where the residents from Kawauchi-mura live after having evacuated from their home after the nuclear accident. The facility was built with the money of about 40 million yen (about 408,000 euro, US$520,000) donated via the German Red Cross.

[4] Cordula Meyer, “Studying the Fukushima Aftermath ‘People Are Suffering from Radiophobia,’” Der Spiegel, August 19, 2011,


[5] NHK Special: TheTruth about a Contaminated Land: 20 Years After Chernobyl (NHK spesharu yogosareta daichi de cherunobiri niju nen go no shinjitsu) (NHKスペシャル 汚された大地で ~チェルノブイリ 20年後の真実~ ) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGYj9XunnzY 

The Solution to Pollution is Dilution

I wrote previously about the varied pricing of rice in Japan this year, and the varied availability of rice from regions near and far from the Fukushima Daiichi meltdowns. I found this interesting difference yesterday at a local supermarket in Narita, Chiba Prefecture.

This is Koshihikari Blended Rice, a 5 kg. bag consisting of year 2011 harvested rice originating in "various prefectures" as indicated on this label. Mmm, yummy.
The price on the blended rice is 1,880 yen, about US$23.




For comparison, 5 kgs. of non-blended rice from Chiba Prefecture sells for 2,680 yen, about US$35. Even the soil in Chiba is contaminated, but much less so than the soil of points 100 kms. north. In this store there was no rice available from farther away in Western Japan.

For more background on Japanese citizens' anger at the failure to safeguard the food supply, see the recent article by Martin Fackler in the New York Times: Japanese Struggle to Protect their Food Supply.

2012/01/19

The IAEA Loves Women

The IAEA, having suffered a terrible year for its image, has taken refuge under the petticoat of gender politics to sell the notion "Women: A Driving Force in Nuclear Power Programs." Perhaps they have noticed that it is more often women who are the driving force in protecting their children and the human race from nuclear pollution. Something must be done about this gender gap!
If the IAEA wants to play this game, it is important to remember the female voices that have gone unheard by the IAEA and the global nuclear industry since the Chernobyl catastrophe in 1986. Here is one such voice:

"I am not yet 32 years old, but I find myself in a hospital bed several times a year. And all of my four children (under 12) are also ill most of the time (they feel weak and listless, they have joint pains in arms and legs, their hemoglobin is below normal, they have enlarged thyroid and lymph nodes, headaches, stomach pains, constant colds). And it is the same in every family. 
We want to live. We want our kids to live and grow up healthy, and have a future. But through heartlessness, callousness and cruelty of those on whom our lives and the lives of our children depend, we are condemned to the worst possible fate, and we are only too well aware of that.... We have had to eat, drink and breathe radiation for years, waiting for our last day."

- Valentina Nikolaevna Okhremchuk, mother of four little boys, and all the mothers of Olevshchina.

Letter written to Soviet Union People's Deputy, Alla A. Yaroshinskaya, published in: 
Yaroshinskaya, Alla, A. (2011) Chernobyl: Crime without Punishment. Transaction Publishers. p. 197-198.

The situation would be a little less worrisome if the international community recognized the moral failure of the past, but it continues now with no expression of remorse. The Japanese government is working from the same playbook as the Soviets in their dying days of empire. Mothers in Fukushima are asking for the right to compensated evacuation, and this perfectly reasonable claim has been thoroughly ignored by the Japanese government. The international community, Japan's friendly allies and the IAEA give their quiet assent to this woeful neglect.

2012/01/12

Shakespeare on Fukushima

Credit for concept of this posting goes to David Ritchie, a resident of South Korea who has been writing about the Fukushima Daiichi disaster from the other side of the Sea of Japan, or, as they call it in South Korea, the East Sea.

Living in South Korea, David Ritchie seems to be more concerned with local contamination than most people here in Japan. Some might think that indicates an over-reaction, but he has blogged about recent news in South Korea that locally harvested seaweed is contaminated above safety levels – and that’s seaweed not offshore from Fukushima, but to the west, across the Japanese islands and across the Sea of Japan. How did it get over there?

David’s best posting was his use of Shakespeare’s words to describe events in Northern Japan this past year. He has these first four citations on his blog. I took up the game and added the rest that follow. 

Shakespeare was definitely writing about other things besides nuclear disasters, so it is a bit dubious to put his words in another context like this, but I do it to underscore the power of his language. The extraordinary nature of a nuclear disaster requires extraordinary powers of expression, and Shakespeare's words seem to fill this need.

On radioactive plumes: 
The storm is up, and all is on the hazard
Julius Caesar, Act 5, Scene 1

On radionuclide uptake: 
Yet have I something in me dangerous
Hamlet, Act 5, Scene 1

On the beauty of Fukushima, despoiled by invisible dust:

Never came poison from so sweet a place.
Richard III, Act 1, Scene 2

And on post-3/11 realities:
Let me embrace thee, sour adversity,
For wise men say it is the wisest course.
Henry VI, part 3, Act 3, Scene 1

***************

My additions:

On the government regulators, and General Electric and TEPCO executives who hid themselves during the crisis:
Cowards die many times before their deaths,
The valiant never taste of death but once.
Julius Caesar Act 2, Scene 2

On the fallout and black rain that fell on Northern Japan, March 2011:

Now is the winter of our discontent
And all the clouds that low'r'd upon our house
In the deep bosom of the ocean buried.
Richard The Third Act 1, Scene 1

Something wicked this way comes.
Macbeth Act 4, Scene 1

What, will the line stretch out to th' crack of doom?
Macbeth Act 4, Scene 1







On the health effects of radiation:
Out, damned spot.
Macbeth Act 5, Scene 1








Fukushima Daiichi, Reactor 3 explodes on March 14, 2011 (off by a day, but damn close):

A soothsayer bids you beware the ides of March.
Julius Caesar Act 1, Scene 2

And thus the whirligig of time brings in his revenges.
Twelfth Night Act 5, Scene 1


On the colossal hubris of Japan’s nuclear industry:
Shall we their fond pageant see?
Lord, what fools these mortals be!
A Midsummer Nights Dream Act 3, Scene 2















Merciful heaven,
Thou rather with thy sharp and sulphurous bolt
Splits the unwedgeable and gnarlèd oak
Than the soft myrtle; but man, proud man,
Dress'd in a little brief authority,
Most ignorant of what he's most assur'd—
His glassy essence—like an angry ape
Plays such fantastic tricks before high heaven
As makes the angels weep; who, with our spleens,
Would all themselves laugh mortal.
Measure For Measure Act 2, Scene 2

On the confusing and contradictory scientific information about nuclear hazards, and the general abandonment of the irradiated people of Fukushima and beyond:
Let every eye negotiate for itself
And trust no agent
Much Ado About Nothing Act 2, Scene 1


On citizens left begging for protection from their perpetrator of the damage:
For in the fatness of these pursy times
Virtue itself of vice must pardon beg.
Hamlet Act 3, Scene 4

On hope lying only in people standing up and rejecting those plans where “expectation failed:”
Oft expectation fails, and most oft there
Where most it promises; and oft it hits
Where hope is coldest, and despair most fits.
All's Well That Ends Well Act 2, Scene 1

We all were sea-swallow'd, though some cast again
(And by that destiny) to perform an act
Whereof what's past is prologue; what to come,
In yours and my discharge.
The Tempest Act 2, Scene 1

On the wisdom of leaving Fukushima to be uninhabited:
What's gone and what's past help
Should be past grief.
The Winter's Tale Act 3, Scene 2

Using those thoughts which should indeed have died
With them they think on? Things without all remedy
Should be without regard: what's done, is done.
Macbeth Act 3, Scene 2


On the profits to be had by a few in the senseless reconstruction and decontamination on poisoned land:
Ill blows the wind that profits nobody.
Henry VI, Part 3, Act 2, Scene 5

On the likelihood of Japanese nuclear plant operators following lawful, sensible and ethical procedures:
...it is a custom more honor'd in the breach than the observance
Hamlet Act 1, Scene 4

On the illusory promise of a technology that could fulfill all our “energy needs:”
Swift as a shadow, short as any dream,
Brief as the lightning in the collied night,
That, in a spleen, unfolds both heaven and earth;
And ere a man hath power to say "Behold!"
The jaws of darkness do devour it up:
So quick bright things come to confusion.
A Midsummer Night's Dream Act 1, Scene 1

And the final question

To be or not to be?
Hamlet Act 3, Scene 1



2012/01/08

Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Bikini, Fukushima: Japan Nuked Four Times by American Technology

This post will be short so that readers can skip straight to the link below which is a long article that expresses much of what I wanted to say about my year of living dangerously in Japan. Someone wrote it better than I could, so I'm spared the work on this one.


Gayle Greene's article covers the way that research on Hiroshima and Nagasaki hibakusha (victims of radiation) was originally flawed, and subsequently misinterpreted over many decades, even though it became the 'gold standard' of studies on the health effects of radiation. Because these faults have been consistently ignored, the health effects of nuclear accidents (Chernobyl, Fukushima, downwinders of bomb test fallout) have also been misrepresented and underestimated.


Ms. Greene also explicitly states the obvious but uncomfortable truth about the Fukushima Daiichi accident: that it was the third time that Japan has been irradiated by American technology. Her only error might be in her omission of the 1954 Lucky Dragon #5 incident which actually puts the number up to four. That story is often understood as the tale of a small crew of one tuna boat that got showered in fallout from the Bravo hydrogen bomb test in the Bikini Atoll. It is falsely understood as having set off a panic that made everyone afraid to buy tuna for months afterward because of one shipload of contaminated fish, but actually the discovery of this one badly affected crew instigated monitoring of bomb test fallout for the first time, and widespread contamination was discovered on the Japanese archipelago, in the crews of many other ships, and in the entire catch coming out of the South Pacific that season. For the first time, the world got an inkling of the widespread effects of secret bomb tests that had been going on since 1946.

Some might say that American responsibility for the accident at Fukushima Daiichi is exaggerated. It certainly could have been prevented if the plant had been properly operated, but the decision to bend to American trade pressure meant that Japan chose General Electric's flawed, dangerous light water reactors that were dependent on enriched uranium. For a short time in the late 1960s Japan had the option of going with a heavy water reactor design from Canada that didn't use enriched uranium, but that's another story.


Read on:
Gayle Greene, 'Science with a Skew: The Nuclear Power Industry After Chernobyl and Fukushima,' The Asia-Pacific Journal Vol 10, Issue 1 No 3, January 2, 2012.

2012/01/06

Why Most Research Findings Are False

Previously I wrote about the wide disagreement in the scientific community over the effects of low-level radiation. Both sides of this divide express contempt for the other side’s bias, while the general public has no way to makes sense of the experts’ contradictions and determine where the truth lies.

Some good insights into this dilemma are to be found in the work of Dr. John Ioannidis who published in 2005 a paper called Why Most Published Research Findings Are False. Since then, this paper has been reported on in popular media such as The Atlantic magazine and CTV News in Canada.

So many studies contradict each other, or have to later be retracted, due to several flaws that Dr. Ioannidis has categorized as follows:

A. Confirmation bias
This is the tendency to cherry pick data, design the parameters of experiments in ways that will yield the expected results, then make interpretations and value judgments according to these biases. The CTV article mentioned the satirical paper in the Canadian Medical Association Journal to illustrate the point. The writer concluded that smoking is good for health because it helps marathoners increase lung capacity, boost hemoglobin levels, and lose weight (all true according to real research that was not part of the joke). The satire underscores the point that interpretation and value judgments matter more than the raw data.

B. Not accounting for confounders
If tobacco addiction didn’t exist, many industries would feel that it would have to be invented because it has been the perfect confounder in many lawsuits against industrial polluters. When it comes to research on the health effects of radiation, all findings are confounded by coexistence of chemical pollution.

C. Conflicts of interest
Obvious point. Confirmation bias is created by the money and interests that finance research. In the nuclear industry, there is a large number of high-skilled, high-paying jobs, and a huge financial investments at stake. One would have to be very naïve to believe that these interests haven’t contributed to the production of research findings that find, for example, that the Chernobyl catastrophe had a very minimal impact on human health. Nuclear proponents are also deeply invested in their own positions and the imperatives of the groups they belong to, but compared to the nuclear industry, they have much less at stake. Ultimate victory would not make them wealthy or create lucrative jobs for themselves. In fact, it would free them to do something else with their time. The same cannot be said of supporters of the nuclear industry.

D. Publication bias
This is the tendency to publish only findings that don’t diverge too much from what has been published before by a publication or an institution. Peer review has its obvious advantages, but it also tends to shut out innovative thinkers with radical new ideas. Some researchers are trying to get away from this blockage by crowdsourcing their research findings. They “advocate using the Internet to expose scholarly thinking to the swift collective judgment of a much broader interested audience.”

E. Institutions tend to overhype their studies’ conclusions
Financial pressures and fundraising drives create the temptation to overstate the limitations of research results as they become part of public relations and advertising campaigns.

F. Misinterpretation

The general public, reviewers and science journalists often ignore the tentative nature of the conclusions and play up findings if doing so suits their interest or makes for sensational news.

Ioannidis claims that research findings are also likely to be flawed…

  1. when effect sizes are smaller.
  2. when there is a greater number and lesser pre-selection of tested relationships.
  3. where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes.
  4. when more teams are involved in a scientific field in a chase of statistical significance.
In the summary of his paper Dr. Ioannidis states, “Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias.” This is the state of affairs in rigorously controlled and reviewed medical research. All of the factors above are sure to be even more pronounced in the social sciences where the scientific method is less strictly applied and studies have more confounding factors that cannot be controlled in a laboratory.

When faced with the wide, irreconcilable disagreements in the scientific community, what are the victims of the Fukushima Daiichi catastrophe to do? If the ICRP says only a few thousand people died from the Chernobyl catastrophe, and the ECRR says it was a million, shall we just split the difference and say it was 490,000?
When I consider the biases of the nuclear industry and anti-nuclear advocates, I tend to think that we could actually ignore all the peer reviewed studies and just listen to the voices of people who lived through the catastrophe. We don’t need forensic evidence to prove to us that the Nazi holocaust really happened. The corroborated stories of the victims, perpetrators and liberating armies tell the story. In the same way, the accounts of medical personnel and patients who have lived in the aftermath of the catastrophe should be the evidence that nails the case shut. I leave the last word to a doctor from Belarus:

“Doctor Smolnikova checks baby Christina's heart through her stethoscope, and advises Valia on the chances of an operation. She has a long list of other patients like them.
‘Those who say there is no link with Chernobyl should open their eyes and look at the medical statistics,’ Doctor Smolnikova says.
She has been the village doctor here since long before the nuclear disaster.
‘Before Chernobyl I'd never seen a child with cancer. Now it's common. I treat many more children now with heart defects and kidney damage. To say it's nothing to do with Chernobyl just isn't honest.’”

by Sarah Rainsford 

BBC News, Gomel, Belarus
April 26, 2005

2012/01/04

Pray for Japan

In the wake of the Japan tsunami disaster last year, this phrase “Pray for Japan” became a widespread call to rally global support for Japan. It might have been Lady Gaga’s “We Pray for Japan” bracelet and fundraising drive that did the most to spread the popularity of the phrase. 

Right from the start, however, the phrase struck me as a bizarre reaction to the catastrophe. In idiomatic usage, this phrase has become the thing to say to someone who can't be dissuaded from following a foolish course of action. When all else has failed we say, "Oh, man, I pray for you."

In this sense, the phrase is perhaps apt, though not the intended message of the bracelet. Various national and international governments, corporations and regulatory agencies have bungled the response to the nuclear disaster and left the victims of it largely to fend for and fight among themselves. So, yes, maybe we really should say “Pray for Japan.” It doesn’t seem capable of helping itself much of the time.

However, the whole “Pray for Japan” concept was an insulting, flawed and dangerous idea to put into the minds of disaster victims. It calls to mind the old joke about the drowning man who rejected help from a passing ship, then again from a passing helicopter. When he meets God in heaven, he asks the incredulous Lord why divine intervention didn’t come. Perhaps God shook his head and said, “I pray for you.” In the case of the recent triple disaster, it was a mistake to speak of prayer at a time when the public needed reliable information and ethical and compassionate treatment from authorities.

It is curious that the voices urging “Pray for Japan” focused on the tsunami victims and had little to say about the controversies surrounding the treatment of victims of the nuclear disaster. The former group did in fact have much bigger losses, but the official response to their needs was comparatively much better than the official response to the nuclear disaster. The tsunami victims didn’t really need overseas charity (and who will ever know how it was spent?) because the Japanese government was able to look after their needs.

Lady Gaga and other celebrities have steered clear of discussing the nuclear crisis because doing so would make them controversial and unwelcome guests in Japan. They were welcome to come to Japan and get copious media coverage as long as they refrained from criticism, stayed positive, and mouthed the government line that Japan was back on track.

Another tangential point is that the Japanese government has paid no attention to Lady Gaga's frank admission of her use of illegal drugs. Japanese society is highly intolerant of any endorsement of illegal drug use. In the recent past Japanese immigration and customs authorities have been known to demand urine samples from suspicious foreigners entering the country. The police have even detained pedestrians on Tokyo streets (in areas known for drug dealing activities) for random drug testing. I don’t know if they still get away with doing this, but it would be nice if they offered the same service to mothers in Fukushima who want their children's urine tested for cesium 137. 

In the past, several foreign entertainers have been persecuted in the media and prosecuted for possession of drugs, but Lady Gaga got a pass on this issue from Japanese officialdom. To her credit, she has openly admitted she didn’t want to hypocritically hide the fact that she uses marijuana. If the Japanese authorities know about her habits, it’s interesting that they selectively overlooked it when the person involved had a useful role to play in the response to disaster.


"I smoke a lot of pot when I write music. So I'm not gonna, like, sugar coat it for 60 Minutes that, you know, I-- I'm some, like, sober human being 'cause I'm not. .. I drink a lot of whiskey and I smoke weed when I write. And I don't do it a lot because it's not good for my voice…. I don't want to encourage kids to do drugs. But when you asked me about the sociology of fame and what artists do wrong--what artists do wrong is they lie. And I don't lie. I'm not a liar. I built goodwill with my fans. They know who I am. And I'm just like them in so many ways."