2014/05/24

A modest proposal for changing the conversation about nuclear proliferation

A modest proposal for changing the conversation about nuclear proliferation: the standard view of nuclear proliferation risk might be completely backwards

One perennial aspect of the battle over nuclear energy is the question of proliferation risk. Advocates of nuclear energy say that the spread of nuclear power plants does not necessarily have to accelerate the spread of nuclear weapons. Opponents say that this proliferation risk can never be eliminated because any nation that gets a nuclear power plant will have the potential to build nuclear weapons.
Could it be that we have defined this problem in the wrong direction? After all, seventy years into the nuclear age, the record shows that an unexpected thing happened on the way to Armageddon. The feared nuclear war between the superpowers never happened, and a nuclear weapon has never been accidentally detonated, in spite of many nightmarish near misses and “broken arrow” incidents. In contrast, nuclear power plants have a record of devastating accidents, the most famous of which are Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima.
Of course, deliberate weapons tests were crimes against the biosphere and the marginalized ethnic groups who were downwind. Furthermore, the front end and back end of the nuclear weapons industry have left a trail of accidents and environmental contamination. I’m just leaving these issues aside here in order to make a point about nuclear power plants. While the IAEA and the international community were (and still are) preoccupied with what turned out to be a failed attempt to stop weapons proliferation, the beginning of the end of the Cold War came with the explosion of the Number 4 Reactor at Chernobyl.
Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Unit 4 ruins, 1986
 This was the occasion when it should have been obvious to all that the proliferation risk goes in the other direction. Fukushima should have been enough to drive the point home. The best reason to fight for the abolition of nuclear weapons is that they present an unacceptable risk of the proliferation of nuclear power plants. Just look at the historical record of how these two technologies came to various countries.
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, 2011
The bombs came first in 1945, then the nuclear power plants came a decade later under the deceptive banner of “atoms for peace.” Now we have about 400 nuclear power plants throughout the world, and each one of them is essentially a nuclear fuel and nuclear waste production facility, with years of accumulated waste usually sitting above ground in long-term storage. The recent failure at the disposal site in New Mexico has cast doubt on underground disposal as a solution for nuclear waste. Each power plant is a large dirty bomb in waiting. Each one could potentially cause a large-scale social and ecological catastrophe if it were struck by a natural disaster or an act of war or sabotage.
As we look at the record of individual countries, we see that several have built power plants under the cover of building a nuclear arsenal for deterrence and self-defense. In the case of the USA, the USSR, China, France, and the UK, this was the duplicitous strategy. Other countries like Canada, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland and many others were much bolder. They didn’t even bother to express any peaceful intention of just wanting a deterrent. They boldly went straight to nuclear power plants.
Israel and North Korea are the only two countries that have nuclear weapons but no nuclear power plants. They had the good sense to not trust themselves and tied themselves to the mast as they sailed past the siren song promising cheap and clean electricity. Pakistan has also been fairly restrained for a nation in possession of nuclear weapons, having only two plants in operation. We could call these three the axis of self-restraint. They have not let their nuclear arsenals proliferate into dangerous fleets of nuclear reactors, and their geopolitical circumstances make the reasons obvious. They have enough cause to take seriously the possibility that hostile actors might target a nuclear power plant as a way of dealing a blow that could be as calamitous as a nuclear detonation.
However, there is no guarantee that these three shining examples of global leadership will always be so sensible. A guarantee of safety could come only from the hardening of a global taboo against the possession of nuclear weapons--not for the usual reasons that everyone is rightly afraid of, but for the less acknowledged reason that nuclear weapons pose an unacceptable risk of nuclear power plant proliferation.

2014/05/17

What would Voltaire say about CIGEO?

What would Voltaire say about CIGEO?
 
Chateau de Cirey, Haute-Marne
In the 18th century, the great French author and activist Voltaire (they called them philosophes in those days) spent several years living with his lover, the mathematician and physicist Émilie du Châtelet, at Château de Cirey. The place belonged to the Marquis du Châtelet, but he was hardly ever at home and was cool with his wife's choice of roommate. 
   Voltaire was one of the wealthy one-percenters back in his day, but he was also one of the key Englightenment figures who helped bring an end to European dynasties and the hereditary privilege of the nobility. He spent some time in the Bastille as a political prisoner, went into exile numerous times, and never chickened out when he saw an injustice to lend his famous voice to.
   The Château de Cirey is in the Haute-Marne region, which is also the place where the French nuclear establishment hopes to bury the nation’s high level nuclear waste near the town of Bure. The historical coincidence makes me wonder what Voltaire would say today if he could witness the modern outrage of the French nuclear legacy.
The French agency ANDRA (Agence National Pour la Gestion des Déchets Radioactifs) has a plan to create CIGEO (Centre Industrial de Stockage Géologique), the nuclear waste disposal/storage site that may be approved for the Haute-Marne region that is, for the time being, famous more for its champagne. ANDRA and CIGEO have vast resources at their disposal, so they have been able to publish a great deal of information in English and German, in addition to French, in order to give to the international community their view of the proposal, and of the long road over public debate and steps of government approval that they hope will lead to a green light in the year 2019. Readers can peruse their documents and make up their own minds as to whether they make a convincing case that the project will indeed be reversible and safe for an adequate length of time.

The CIGEO website presently declares:

The public debate and exchange phase concerning the CIGEO project, which began last May, has drawn to a close. Even if the public meetings that had initially been planned could not take place due to opponents of the project preventing anybody from speaking, the debate was still able to move forward, particularly on the Internet.

The ANDRA website describes the conclusion of the public debate period this way:

“Christian Leyrit and Claude Bernet emphasised that the debate had been rich, while expressing regret that public meetings had been prevented from taking place. More than 76,000 visits were registered on the public debate website, 1,500 questions asked, 500 opinions given and 154 stakeholder reports submitted. The departments of Meuse and Haute-Marne account for almost half of the stakeholder reports, 25% of the statements made and 18.5% of the questions asked… ANDRA will examine the proposal for a new project scope, integrating a "pilot" storage stage. This proposal is in keeping with that [sic] from the citizen's conference for a trial phase under real conditions.”

It seems like those pesky anti-nuclear activists spoiled the fun for everyone, but the debates went ahead as best as they could regardless. One may be tempted to say that these opponents lost their legitimacy by disrupting the process and withdrawing from it, but it could be the case that the very idea of debating CIGEO would be dignifying it in a way it doesn’t deserve. There are many once-common but now-repugnant cultural practices that we no longer debate. Society may be reaching a point at which nuclear waste management and the continued production of nuclear waste are coming to be regarded as slavery was in 1860s America. No self-respecting moral person could bring himself to even discuss the question of whether one group of people had the right to enslave another in chains.
The French anti-nuclear group Sortir du Nucléaire doesn’t have the same resources as ANDRA and CIGEO that would allow them to publish all of their messages in foreign languages, so I’m helping them out again with a volunteer translation of one of their press releases regarding the proposed pilot project at Bure. It is followed by another translation--an essay by a French nuclear industry insider who wrote recently, under a pseudonym, about the flawed assumptions behind the CIGEO project.
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Translation 1

A “pilot project” for the burial of radioactive wastes: a plan to impose CIGEO (Centre Industrial de Stockage Géologique)* by incremental steps

ANDRA (Agence National Pour la Gestion des Déchets Radioactifs) has just released its conclusions regarding the public debate on CIGEO. In spite of strong objections, the deep geological disposal project is being maintained under the cover of a “pilot project.” This stratagem for getting a foot in the door for the project is unacceptable. It won’t make the problems disappear.

A way for CIGEO to get its foot in the door

In order to not lose face after facing numerous criticisms expressed during the public debate period, ANDRA proposes now to carry out the CIGEO project in small steps. The timetable has been extended, the application for authorization will now be done in two stages, and, above all, there will be an “industrial phase pilot project.”
While being labelled as “reversible,” this way of proceeding is no more than a way of slowly establishing the project while the construction of infrastructure continues apace. There is no guarantee that the wastes disposed of “experimentally” could ever be brought back to the surface. The residents near the site in Bure have already seen the “laboratory” transformed into an industrial center for geologic disposal. Now they will face another rude shock when they realize that the pilot project has turned CIGEO into a fait accompli.

The pilot project exists only to divert attention from the serious flaws of CIGEO

   It is certain that ANDRA is hoping to divert attention from the serious criticisms that were raised during the period of public debate. The problems extend over every aspect of CIGEO: the costs, the exact nature of the inventory of wastes, concerns of neighboring countries (Luxembourg and Germany), risks of fires and hydrogen explosions, ethical issues. No pilot project can make these issues disappear. In fact, recent problems at a similar site in New Mexico have confirmed that burial is an option that should be abandoned.
The pilot project will also not make ANDRA’s lies fade away. The geothermic potential of the Bure site is another factor that cannot be ignored. This risk in itself is enough reason to cancel the project.
The conclusions that should have been made after the debates are the following:

1.     We must definitively abandon the CIGEO project by first withdrawing it from the law on energy transition.
2.     We must break the impasse over the issue of radioactive waste burial.
3.     We must cease the transformation of the area into a monoculture of the nuclear industry.
4.     We must stop the production of nuclear waste.

It is not the nuclear wastes that should be buried but rather the CIGEO project itself.
__________

*translator’s note: The public debates have made ANDRA realize that public acceptance hinges on convincing the public that this is a reversible storage project and not a permanent disposal project. The terms are as charged with significance as the terms pro-life and pro-choice in the debate over abortion. ANDRA would like to convince the public that if there is trouble down in the hole, people of the future will be able to safely retrieve the wastes and figure out another way to deal with them—as if bringing them back up and guarding them above ground for 100,000 years would be a “solution” that we could feel good about. CIGEO now has a new definition: centre industriel de stockage réversible profond de déchets radioactifs en Meuse/Haute-Marne.

A document which goes well with the press release above is an essay published by a Swiss group called Appel de Genève II. The document is significant because it is written under a pseudonym by a whistleblower from inside the French nucleocracy. I have translated the first three paragraphs that explain his professional qualifications and his reasons for speaking out. I haven’t translated the rest of the essay because it supports many of the same points in the argument made by Jean-Pierre Petit which I translated previously. In particular, the main concern is that the waste will continue to generate heat, which will denature the containers in unpredictable ways and turn the tunnels into ovens. Furthermore, no one can guarantee that underground water flow, humidity and the geological state of the site will remain unchanged over 100,000 years. 
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Translation 2

Appel de Genève II
February 12, 2014

The CIGEO deep geological disposal site for radioactive waste in Bure : How the adventurism of the nucleocrats risks an unprecedented disaster that could one day be called a crime against the biosphere.

by Hans Zumkeller

Let me introduce myself. I have worked for a long time for the CEA (Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) in the thermal section. This involves working with everything related to the production of steam, turbines, and their connections to alternators. My responsibilities also included securing heat removal of reactor cores in case of an emergency shutdown. I also participated in studies concerning the circulation of sodium coolant in fast neutron reactors. My title is chef de service, but I don’t have responsibilities in the neutronic field, the nature of irradiated materials, their embrittlement, reprocessing, the behavior of new fuel types, etc. My knowledge as a graduate of one of the prestigious French Grandes Ecoles gives me an ability to manage problems which is above that of a simple technician.
What makes me different from some of my colleagues is that I have a natural curiosity which led me to acquire a breadth of knowledge beyond my official duties that covers several, but not all, domains.
Everyone will immediately understand that I could write this only under a pseudonym. Several colleagues have views identical to mine or close to them, but they stay silent. It is rare that we speak directly about these things among ourselves. At our level, as important and responsible specialists in the industry, problems are evoked in veiled terms and jokes. Prudence is essential.


2014/05/06

Long Night of the Living Dead: Superphénix reincarnated as Astrid

France experienced nothing but nightmares with its 20th century experiment with fast breeder reactor technology. I covered this topic previously in a series of translations of French documents about the Superphénix reactor failure: Superphénix Part 1, Superphénix Part 2, and Superphénix Part 3.
The first time around, the French fast breeder reactor was met with vigorous resistance by protesters. In 1977, 60,000 protesters assembled on the construction site and were met by riot police. One fatality ensued and there were other injuries of protesters and police. During construction, a small cell of eco-warriors attacked the reactor with a bazooka. They hoped to destroy the reactor vessel before it was loaded with fuel, but the missile missed the mark. In 2003, a Swiss member of parliament confessed to the deed after the statute of limitations had passed. To this day, some pro-nuclear advocates use this case as proof that some in the ecology movement are dangerous radicals who would cause a nuclear disaster to prove their point. One may disagree with the tactic, but one thing that should be understood about this attack is that it was deliberately carried out before nuclear materials were loaded into the reactor. There was no intention to cause a nuclear disaster.
After the Superphénix reactor was switched on, it was plagued with technical problems and cost overruns. The government shut it down and decommissioning work began in 1997. The job is set to last another 20 years at least. Nonetheless, the French breeder reactor is back like an undead beast that needs to be continually fed then beaten back into the grave by vigilant citizens. Incredibly, France, Britain and Japan are co-operating on this project as if it’s a Three Stooges movie. France brings its expertise with the failed Superphénix reactor, Britain shares its valuable experience in ecological contamination from Sellafield, and Japan feels it has a contribution to make with the lessons learned from its Monju boondoggle. Like nuclear waste itself, the dream of the perfectibility of nuclear technology is persistent, indestructible and toxic.
The text that follows is a translation of a report on the latest incarnation of the fast breeder reactor.
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Astrid, 4th Generation Reactor: Miracle Technology or Dangerous Chimera?

Originally published in French by Sortir du Nucléaire, May 2014:

In July 2012, on the occasion of the signing of an accord between the CEA (Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives) and Bouygues Construction, a discreet nuclear project came out of the shadows: the Astrid reactor.
This prototype is a representative of the famous “4th Generation” of reactors: a very modern label for a project which, nonetheless, has nothing fundamentally new about it. What are the characteristics of Astrid? Why does the nuclear industry have such hope for it? And what are the risks and the failings linked to this chimerical project?

Astrid? Say what?


Sign the petition against the Astrid reactor: http://marcoule.ecoloweb.fr/


ASTRID: This acronym (Advanced Sodium Technological Reactor for Industrial Demonstration) in the form of a pretty first name is supposed to be the prototype of a new model of sodium-cooled fast neutron reactor. This reactor, said to be “4th Generation” [1] presented by the CEA as “a technological break with all that has come before” is, however, only a slightly modified version of the Superphénix, the breeder reactor closed in 1997 because of multiple breakdowns during 12 years of operation.
The Astrid project has been undertaken since 2006 by the CEA, in partnership with Areva, EDF, Bouygues Construction, Alstom… In 2010, it had already benefited from 650 million euros in loans called “financing for future investments.” The government is supposed to decide whether to continue the project in the years to come. If it does, the prototype 600 MW reactor will debut in 2017 (construction of the reactor core is to begin in 2016) and be put into service in 2020. The exploitation of commercial models is to begin toward the year 2040.

A Miracle Technology?

While leaving the EPR technology [3rd Generation pressurized water reactor] with a deployment time of decades into the future (a deployment always compromised by the failures so far at the EPR projects under construction at Flamanville and Olkiluoto, Finland), Astrid has appeal for the nuclear industry.
We are told that this reactor will “recycle” a great number of nuclear materials, as it will use as fuel low-enriched uranium, depleted uranium and plutonium from stocks of spent nuclear fuel. The CEA states, “A fleet of fast neutron reactors equal in capacity to the present fleet of reactors operated by EDF could thus function for at least 2,500 years with only the spent fuel and depleted uranium presently in existence in French installations!” To the extent that it produces plutonium, the Astrid could also produce its own fuel, solving the problem of an eventual lack of uranium. A perfect solution, permitting the generation of infinite energy?
According to the CEA, Astrid would permit us to reduce the length of time that certain “minor actinides” are dangerous: by the process of transmutation, these nuclear materials transform themselves into others with a shorter period of radioactivity (but still longer than many centuries!).

The Myth of an Inexhaustible Fuel Supply

Infinite energy? It seems too good to be true, and so there is a point at which the ardent promoters of nuclear put a nuance on the enthusiastic declarations of the CEA. They stress that in order to start a single “fast neutron reactor” of commercial size, an enormous quantity of plutonium would be needed. So, in fact, choosing this option requires that there also be new reactors of the “classic” design that produce plutonium.

An Alibi for Dodging the Problem of Waste Disposal

Astrid is no more and no less than an alibi for the atomic industry: to start the 4th Generation of reactors, we would have to construct other new reactors in advance [to make the plutonium starter fuel].  Furthermore, the prospect of the future “recycling” of nuclear waste and plutonium provides a formidable caution against continuing to operate reactors without worrying about the dangerous products they produce.
In fact, if radioactive material could potentially be re-used, even if only hypothetically, French law considers it not to be a waste product but rather a “valued material.” Therefore, the prospect of the emergence of these 4th Generation reactors over the next few decades will allow the industry to subtract hundreds of tons of plutonium, tens of thousands of tons of irradiated uranium, and hundreds of thousands of tons of depleted uranium from the inventory of waste products. This represents a colossal stock of dangerous materials which will be unaccounted for in cost assessments of nuclear waste disposal. For the time being, the industry is content to keep accumulating it.
Renouncing Astrid is a matter of pulling down this smokescreen and thus exposing the real costs of nuclear. This is a risk that successive governments seem unwilling to take.

A High Risk Technology

Consider now the specific risks of fast neutron sodium-cooled reactors. It seems like the partisans of this design have decided to play with fire.
Let’s keep in mind first of all that plutonium, the fuel used and produced in the reactor, is an extremely toxic material. One microgram suffices to cause a cancer in the lung. The use of plutonium also increases proliferation risks. It only takes a few kilos to make a bomb. Finally, plutonium is more prompt than uranium—it can trigger uncontrolled chain reactions more readily. Using it increases the risk of causing uncontrolled chain reactions comparable to what happened at Chernobyl.
Furthermore, Astrid will use liquid sodium for heat removal, but this material is flammable on contact with water or air. In similar reactors, many sodium leaks have occurred which led to dangerous fires (the Monju reactor in Japan, cousin of Astrid, has been out of operation for fifteen years since such an accident). By the admission of the CEA, the properties of this fluid seriously complicate the operation of the reactor: “the fluid used for heat removal is hot (at least 180 °C, and 550 °C in the reactor core) and it is opaque. That makes inspection during operation difficult. Special imaging techniques need to be developed, such as ultrasound scanners, in order to do an inspection that doesn’t require removal of the sodium. Draining the sodium is a long and delicate operation during which time the reactor is not producing electricity.” [2] The Monju reactor is a good example of the problems involved. In August 2010, a metallic piece weighing 3.3 tons fell into the reactor. The operations undertaken to recover it were so complicated, because of the presence of sodium, that a restart is considered impossible.
The risks associated with this design once led an engineer for EDF, J.P. Pharabod, to say about the predecessor of Astrid, “It is not unreasonable to think that a grave accident involving the Superphénix could kill more than a million people.” [3] A few decades later, the scant improvements in the design leave little hope that its safety has been improved.
Finally, what can we say about the future dismantling of such reactors? The dismantling of the Superphénix has been a major headache. Fifteen years after the shutdown, it is still necessary to cool the spent fuel. To “neutralize” the 5,500 tons of sodium on the site, the only solution has been to transform it into a soda, pouring it drop-by-drop into concrete. The process will last for years still.
So why has France chosen to go down this aberrant road again? Probably because it wants to get something out of the Superphénix experience, even if it was a proven catastrophe. After its failings and exorbitant costs, 652 million euros have so far been spent on the development of Astrid. This is probably only the start, if we consider past experiences: according the Court of Auditors, the Superphénix has so far cost 12 billion euros.
In addition, the characteristics of these reactors seem to lead to a multiplication of breakdowns and incidents. In 12 years, Superphénix produced electricity for only 53 months, and operated at full power for only 200 days. The Monju reactor produced electricity for only one hour! [4]. Even after being shut down, the fuel must be cooled by liquid sodium, which requires inputs of electricity to keep it circulating in a liquid state. Thus the energy efficiency of these reactors could end up being mediocre or negative.

A Plan We Should Urgently Abandon

With Astrid, French citizens must face the fait accompli of the deployment of a new reactor design that is onerous and chimerical. In 2012, when the deputy Noël Mamère railed at the funds consumed by this project, the government pretended that nothing was officially decided and the subject would be covered during a national debate on the energy transition. But this wasn’t the case, and the matter escaped the oversight of citizens and elected officials.
The risks posed by Astrid are unacceptable, and it should be considered scandalous to spend billions on a chimerical technology during a period of economic crisis.
Instead of deluding itself about the “nuclear future,” France should urgently invest in energy efficiency and renewable energy. Once again, Germany offers us an example to follow: our neighbors across the Rhine stopped the construction of such a reactor and turned the site into an amusement park!

Notes


[1] France is investing in other reactor designs called “4th Generation,” notably plutonium reactors using gas for heat removal.
[2] Les défis du CEA n°152, juillet-août 2010.
[3] Science et Vie n°703, avril 1976
[4] “Japan Strains to Fix a Reactor Damaged Before Quake,” The New York Times, June 17, 2011. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/18/world/asia/18japan.html
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The article above was originally published in French by Sortir du Nucléaire, May 2014:

2014/05/01

M'aider, Mayday, May Day

The international distress call, derived from the French for "help me," resembles the synonym for International Workers’ Day, and both senses apply to this May Day message.
I’ve been reading a lot of distressing messages about anti-nuclear bloggers getting harassed by trolls, security agencies and offended corporate lackeys who slap them with frivolous lawsuits. Although I am completely sympathetic to their messages, I’m beginning to wonder if people are expecting too much to be achieved by independent blogging. Should we be surprised that the strong are picking on the most isolated targets? Predators always try to separate the strays from the herd and pick them off first.
It’s alarming to hear that people are giving up their jobs and financial independence, or taking refuge in a foreign country, in order to continue blogging. I hope no one will take this the wrong way because I’m writing this out of concern for their well-being. I just have to ask whether this degree of sacrifice is necessary. If one person is having trouble, there are others who can take over for a while. Move the message to a different place, written by new people, and make it a game of whack-a-mole for opponents and keep them off balance. The anti-nuclear movement is wide and deep, and it has a long history. Hundreds of books and documentaries critical of the nuclear industry have been published. They are not banned. There are numerous NGOs and political parties with anti-nuclear policies that need the support of working folks who can contribute a bit of their disposable income. These groups are not banned, either, in most countries. They are not harassed or targeted in frivolous lawsuits because, thanks to the support of their members, they are too big to mess with. They can afford legal defense. Furthermore, their opponents don’t want the bad publicity that would come from trying to silence a high-profile group.
Political involvement matters, unless you believe, like Russel Brand, that some sort of passive rejection of the system will lead to its overthrow and everything will be just fine afterwards. The Green Party of Canada, for example, is the only Canadian party that is anti-nuclear (not just against nuclear subsidies like the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP). However, even the Greens’ policy can be turned if there is enough pressure from the “environmental pro-nuclear” crowd. On April 29, 2014, the Green Party did in fact post a pro-nuclear proposal (not yet passed) for a change in energy policy that would allow for "inherently safe" nuclear technology. If anti-nuclear people want to oppose this, they have to join up, raise funds, recruit supporters, get involved in forming policy, and of course vote.
So there’s a downside to being a lone wolf, as either an individual or a single NGO. Eventually, this movement of atomized voices has to coalesce into a force that can change legislation. 
   The lone wolf can’t easily bring down a moose, and in fact, it’s likely the moose will crash his skull if he tries. Better to hunt in a pack. And since it’s May Day, I’ll mention what workers achieved through collective action in the mid-20th century. There were no blogs in those days. Workers stayed at work but gave up a bit of their wages for union dues, then let the union fight for change in the political arena. The heroes were the unsung heroes who didn’t write the songs and the speeches. They were willing to be anonymous and subsumed into something bigger than themselves. In Canada, the province of Saskatchewan had a socialist premier in 1944 who established North America’s first single-payer universal health care program. Pretty soon the program was so popular it was supported by mainstream parties and turned into a national program.
But don’t take any of this too seriously. This is just a blog.

Established anti-nuclear groups, most of which pre-date blogging. They may need donations more than they need bloggers echoing their message.

Institute of Radiation Safety BELRAD (Assistance for Chernobyl Victims)




2014/04/26

Voices from Chernobyl on the 28th Anniversary of the Catastrophe

After the Nazi Holocaust, the world accepted oral histories as the evidence of what had occurred. This only seems natural, and it is easy to imagine the uproar that would ensue if public intellectuals and United Nations agencies suddenly declared that these oral histories were unreliable or based on a misunderstanding of the true causes of the suffering. However, when it comes to Chernobyl, Fukushima, and other nuclear disasters, oral history gets dismissed as ‘anecdotal,’ or motivated by a desire to gain status as a compensated victim. In spite of all the official neglect of the victims, there are a few good collections of oral histories in books and documentary films. In these, hundreds of witnesses all tell similar accounts that contradict the official conclusions.
 
One of the best oral histories was Voices from Chernobyl, compiled by Svetlana Alexievich in the 1990s and translated into English in 2005. To commemorate the 28th anniversary of the catastrophe, I’ve collected a few excerpts below, but they really don’t do justice to the full impact of reading the whole book. Most of these voices belong to the liquidators, the 700,000 people from all over the Soviet Union who were conscripted into various tasks related not only to taming the reactor but also to “cleaning up” and evacuating the exclusion zone, and many of these jobs ended up being absurd and desperate rites of decontamination and dispossession in a world where “the Apocalypse met the Stone Age.” (p.87) The work was lubricated with a flood of alcohol that turned the zone into a black market with a vodka currency, and this itself invites the question whether it was an official ploy to make sure that the veterans of the Battle of Chernobyl would fade away into alcoholism before their problems could be clearly linked to radiation.

What is apparent from reading their accounts is that the rate of death and disease was much higher than the official studies ever admitted. To this day, the World Health Organization supports the view expressed in this statement:

According to UNSCEAR (2000), 134 liquidators received radiation doses high enough to be diagnosed with acute radiation sickness (ARS). Among them, 28 persons died in 1986 due to ARS. Other liquidators have since died but their deaths could not necessarily be attributed to radiation exposure.

Voices from Chernobyl

There you are: a normal person. A little person. You’re just like everyone else--you go to work, you return from work. You get an average salary. Once a year you go on vacation. You’re a normal person! And then one day you’re turned into a Chernobyl person, an animal that everyone is interested in, and that no one knows anything about. You want to be like everyone else, and now you can’t. People look at you differently. They ask you: Was it scary? How did that station burn? What did you see? And, you know, can you have children? Did your wife leave you? At first we were all turned into animals. The very word “Chernobyl” is like a signal. Everyone turns their head to look. He’s from there! (p. 31)

There’s a note on the door: “Dear Kind Person, please don’t look for valuables here. We never had any. Use whatever you want, but don’t trash the place. We’ll be back.” I saw signs on other houses in different colors—“Dear house, forgive us!” People said goodbye to their homes like they were people. Or they’d written: “we’re leaving in the morning,” or “we’re leaving at night,” and they’d put the date and even the time. There were notes written on school notebook paper: “Don’t beat the cat. Otherwise the rats will eat everything.” And then in a child’s handwriting: “Don’t kill our Zhulka. She’s a good cat.” I’ve forgotten everything. I only remember that I went there, and after that I don’t remember anything. I forgot all of it. I can’t count money. My memory’s not right. The doctors can’t understand it. I go from hospital to hospital. But this sticks in my head: you’re walking up to the house, thinking the house is empty, and you open the door and there’s this cat. That, and those kids’ notes. (p.36-37)

We started thinking about it—I guess it must have been—three years later. One of the guys got sick, then another. Someone died. Another went insane and killed himself. That’s when we started thinking. But we’ll really only understand it in about 20-30 years. For me, Afghanistan (I was there two years) and then Chernobyl (I was there three months), are the most memorable moments of my life. (p.39)

We came home. I took off all the clothes that I’d worn there and threw them down the trash chute. I gave my cap to my little son. He really wanted it. And he wore it all the time. Two years later they gave him a diagnosis: a tumor in his brain… You can write the rest of this yourself. I don’t want to talk anymore. (p.40)

There were already jokes. Guy comes home from work, says to his wife, “They told me that tomorrow I either go to Chernobyl or hand in my Party card.” “But you’re not in the Party.” “Right, so I’m wondering: how do I get a Party card by tomorrow morning?” (p. 44)

After Chernobyl you can eat anything you want, but you have to bury your shit in a lead box… The prayer of the Chernobyl liquidator: Dear Lord, since you made it so that I can’t, will you please also make it so that I don’t want to? (p.48)

We’re lonely. We’re strangers here. They even bury us separately, not like they do other people. It’s like we’re aliens from outer space. I’d have been better off dying in Afghanistan. Honest, I get thoughts like that. In Afghanistan death was a normal thing. You could understand it there. (p. 50)

I’ve wondered why everyone was silent about Chernobyl, why our writers weren’t writing much about it--they write about the war, the camps, but here they’re silent. Why? Do you think it’s an accident? If we’d beaten Chernobyl, people would talk about it and write about it more. Or if we’d understood Chernobyl. But we don’t know how to capture the meaning from it. We can’t place it in our human experience or our human time-frame.
So what’s better, to remember or to forget? (p. 86)

A group of scientists flew in on a helicopter. In special rubber suits, tall boots, protective goggles. Like they were going to the moon. This old woman comes up to one of them and says, “Who are you?” “I’m a scientist.” “Oh, a scientist. Look how he’s dressed up! Look at that mask! And what about us?” And she goes after him with a stick. I’ve thought a few times that someday they’re going to start hunting the scientists the way they used to hunt the doctors and drown them in the Middle Ages. (p.88)

The book finishes with a long, heartbreaking testimony entitled A Solitary Human Voice, that of Valentina Panasevich, who lost her husband to cancer after he returned from work as a liquidator. If you think you ever loved someone with complete devotion, Valentina might put you to shame. Chernobyl is a tale from the end of the Cold War and the end of the communist system in the USSR. It was the end of an age when people were expected to surrender their private life to ideology and sometimes even die for it. It is stunning to hear Valentina’s voice, a product of this era, speaking with total obliviousness and contempt for ideology and the projects of state: a fitting rebuke to the system that caused the tragedy, and a fitting affirmation of the primacy of the individual to conclude this book. Love is all there is. There was nothing for Valentina besides her love for her husband. She told the historian Alexievich:

In school, all the girls dreamt of going to university or on a Komsomol [Communist Youth League] work trip, but I dreamt of getting married. I wanted to love. To love strongly, like Natasha Rostov [in War and Peace]. Just to love. But I couldn’t tell anyone about it, because back then you were only supposed to dream of the Komsomol construction trip. (p.223)

In the final pages of the book, Valentina recounts how she met her husband and cared for him during his slow decline after he returned from conscripted duty at Chernobyl. Like so many of the preceding testimonies, her account describes how it was common knowledge among the people that the radiation had taken far more lives, and far more of a toll on the health and DNA of the victims, than were ever officially admitted:

One time I managed to get an ambulance. It arrives with a young doctor. He comes over and right away staggers back. “Excuse me, he’s not from Chernobyl [a liquidator], is he?” I say, “Yes.” And he, I’m not exaggerating, he cries out, “Dear woman, then let this end quickly! Quickly! I’ve seen how the ones from Chernobyl die.” Meanwhile, my husband is conscious, he hears this. At least he doesn’t know, he hasn’t guessed, that he is the last one from his brigade still alive. (p.229)

Further reading:

"Svetlana Alexievich wins 2015 Nobel prize in literature," The Guardian, October 8, 2015.

One of the more compelling testimonies from Voices from Chernobyl (not excerpted above) was published in full in The Paris Review,Winter 2004.

Alla Yaroshinskaya. Chernobyl: Crime without Punishment (2011).

Jim Green. "Chernobyl: How Many Died?" The Ecologist. (April 26, 2014).

2014/04/20

Asteroid Impact, Asteroid Tsunamis and Nuclear Facilities

Tsunamis are waves in the ocean or lakes generated by abrupt vertical movement of the seafloor or lake floor by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and, rarely, asteroid impact
City of Richmond, British Columbia, Canada

There are things that are important enough that you don't tolerate any risk. You have to have data to work with to generate reliable risk estimates. It just doesn't work for rare but catastrophic events.

David Schindler

I wrote most of this post (below the line) a few months after the asteroid strike on Russia in February 2013. At the time I thought it might have been a little excessive to worry about such a low-probability event, but recent news makes me feel vindicated. This really is a problem that our society should wake up to because it highlights once again one of the many ways that the nuclear legacy has many shocks and surprises in store for future generations. Benjamin Hart, in The Huffington Post, reported today:

Bad news, earthlings. A former NASA scientist says it's mere happenstance that an Armageddon-style asteroid hasn't hit a densely populated area in the last few years. On Tuesday, the B612 Foundation, which is devoted to preventing the next deep impact, will present data from a nuclear-weapons test warning satellite showing that far more asteroids have hit earth in the past few years than previously thought, the organization announced on its website.

The data, collected from a nuclear missile detection system that picks up large blasts on earth, shows that since 2001, asteroids have caused 26 explosions on the scale of an atomic bomb. 

“This data shows that asteroid impacts are NOT rare, but actually 3-10 times more common than we previously thought,” Ed Lu, one of the astronauts working on the project, said in a statement. "The fact that none of these asteroid impacts shown in the video was detected in advance is proof that the only thing preventing a catastrophe from a 'city-killer' sized asteroid is blind luck."

It is interesting that the scientists tell us that the asteroid would be comparable to a nuclear weapon, but they don't seem to be thinking about the other nuclear implications of an asteroid strike. An asteroid impact on a large city would also be likely to take out nuclear weapons and/or nuclear power plants and spent fuel storage pools. The result would be much more than the destruction of a city. It would likely include an event as severe as, or more severe than Chernobyl and Fukushima.

I wrote the paragraphs below in 2013, contemplating the risk of asteroid impacts and the tsunami waves they could cause on large bodies of water.
_____________________

Maybe I think too much. But I’d worry less if the people who ran the nuclear industry worried a little more. Then again, if they worried more they might come to the logical conclusion that there shouldn't be nuclear plants.

Today I was thinking outside the box, wondering if I could think of a black swan event that no one else is paying attention to. Perhaps I’m doing this just for distraction, to take my mind off the more immediate danger close to home in Japan. Lately the world has been paying attention finally to the potential catastrophe that might unfold after work begins next month on Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Unit 4 Spent Fuel Pool (What’s the abbreviation for this? F1NPP-4SFP?) So for distraction, my thoughts wandered back to my original home by Lake Ontario, and I wondered if there isn’t some risk there that the Canadian nuclear people haven’t taken into account.

I know that nuclear plant operators have considered asteroid impacts before, but they have made no special measures to prepare for them. The thinking seems to be that the risk is too miniscule to think about, but if it happens, the impact will be too huge to worry about. If an asteroid landed near a nuclear plant, everyone in the area would be cooked anyway, so there’s no point in thinking about it.

The risk is miniscule because an asteroid that was big enough to do damage to a plant, but small enough not to cause a catastrophe on its own, would be pretty small. The chance of a small asteroid landing on a reactor building is just too small to worry about. The risk can never be zero, so forget about it. We accept this risk in order to have electricity, right?

But is the risk really that small? Orders of magnitude smaller than the risk of a giant tsunami in Japan? After the light show over Russia in February 2013, asteroid impacts suddenly didn’t seem like a remote possibility.

The question seems to be: Could there be something a little larger than the asteroid that landed on Russia, but small enough not to wipe out civilization, were it not for nuclear facilities that would melt and lay waste to the environment?

At Answers.com someone who was apparently knowledgeable in these matters, posted a good response to the question “What would happen if an asteroid hit the Great Lakes?”

This person set the variables as:
  • 1 mile wide asteroid, solid rock
  • Lake Michigan, 50 miles from Chicago
  • impact: 12 miles per second
  • impact in 800 feet of water 
There is a blinding flash of light, then a magnitude 8 earthquake. Buildings begin to crumble, meteor fragments begin to rain down on the city. A blast wave follows, then a deafening wall of sound. Finally, a 200-foot tsunami hits all shores of the lake and washes inland for 150 miles. But don’t worry, it happens only every few million years, and it probably wouldn’t land in the Great Lakes. 

So fine. But what if we change the variables a little? The Tunguska event of 1908 is believed to have been caused by an air burst of a rock 60–190 meters wide, and that was powerful enough to have had a force of 10-15 megatons and knock down trees over 2,150 square kilometers. If something of this size hits Chicago, Detroit or Toronto, no one will be worrying about radiation from nearby nuclear power plants. The decommissioning and waste disposal problem will be solved.

How about other scenarios? Should we worry? Maybe these things happen only over Russia. But just for fun, let’s consider the surface area of Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, the four Great Lakes that have nuclear power plants situated nearby. How big would an asteroid have to be to cause a tall tsunami on these lakes, a wave bigger than anything power plant operators have planned for? My guess is that it could be much smaller than the one-mile wide rock, smaller than the Tunguska rock, but bigger than what landed on Russia in 2013. It would be a damaging wave, but the big cities on the lakes could recover, if they didn’t have to deal with nuclear fallout in the aftermath. Considering the surface area of the lakes and the frequency of asteroid impacts, this is an event “with probability significantly higher than zero,” as they like to say in the cautious lingo of risk assessment.
Now my mind goes back to something Arnie Gundersen said to Canadian nuclear regulators about the ultimate cause of the problems at Fukushima. We all know that the earthquake damaged the reactors and knocked down the outside transmission lines. We know that the waves flooded the backup power systems. However, what has been overlooked is that even if electrical power had not been cut, there still would have been the damage done to the pumps' cooling systems by the tsunami and earthquake. There is only one factor that leads to meltdown--loss of cooling, which can be caused by loss of power to the cooling system or physical damage to it. Fukushima Daiichi lost power, but the tsunami waves also did physical damage to the cooling system, and this on its own was enough to devastate the plant.* That’s the damage that an unexpectedly tall wave on the Great Lakes could do to a nuclear plant.

*From Peter Melzer's blog
Why Fukushima's Reactors Failed. November 4, 2013

... electric power must be available and the residual heat removal system must remain operable for nuclear reactors of the Fukushima type to successfully complete an emergency shutdown. These conditions impose a major constraint on accident recovery, representing a fundamental weakness of the reactor design. The residual heat removal system must remain operable under the conditions of flooding and station blackout.

Thirty reactors of this type currently operate in the United States. A number are sited in flood-prone areas. A moratorium should be imposed on these reactors, until the operators can ascertain that service water pumps are protected against inundation, debris, and loss of power.

2014/04/04

Count the Joules, Not the Yen

To understand the deception in Japan's nuclear propaganda, you have to count the costs in energy units, not yen

I’ve written before about the dubious claim that Japan’s economy is doomed without nuclear energy. The government has promoted this narrative strongly, and the media have gone along for the ride. Most reports misleadingly label the electric utilities’ fossil fuel purchases as the country’s total fossil fuel imports, and they wrongly interpret rising fuel cost as rising fuel volume. The statistics presented below, showing fossil fuel imports in units of energy (1 Btu=1055 Joules), cast doubt on the myth, as they reveal that the 2011 crisis has had a fairly small impact on overall fossil fuel consumption. Discussion follows after the listing of the statistics.
___________
Energy Statistics for Japan

1. Petroleum Consumption (quadrillion Btu)
2010: 8.976
2012: 9.532
6% increase from 2010-2012

2. Natural Gas Consumption (quadrillion Btu)
2010: 4.063 
2012: 4.876
20% increase from 2010 to 2012

3. Coal Consumption (quadrillion Btu)
2010: 4.827
2012: 4.770
1% decrease from 2010 to 2012

4. Total Energy Consumption, Petroleum+Natural Gas+Coal (quadrillion Btu)
2010: 17.866
2012: 19.178
7.3% increase

5. Electricity Generation (billion kilowatt-hours)
2010: 1,044.596
2012: 963.032
8% decrease from 2010 to 2012

Value of Japanese currency (per $US)
January 2011: 82 yen
April 2014: 103 yen
25% decrease in value
___________

The Japanese government reports its trade deficit and energy costs in yen. The cost of importing fossil fuel has been influenced by changing world prices and by the Japanese government’s choice to decrease the value of the yen by 25%. Thus, the crisis is mostly one of cost, not of volume of fossil fuel consumed. Bloomberg Business Week reported recently:

Japan spent 27.4 trillion yen on fossil fuels in 2013, up 50 percent from 18.1 trillion yen in 2010, the year before the Fukushima disaster, according to Trade Ministry data.

Because of the yen devaluation of 25%, we know that the figure of 50% would have been only a 25% increase if the yen had kept its value. The Bloomberg report doesn’t tell us how much global energy costs have changed since 2010, nor does it tell us about the volume imported. However, number 4 in the list above shows the total fossil fuel consumption increased by 7.3% between 2010 and 2012, which indicates that the remainder of the cost difference, that which is not explained by currency depreciation, must be happening because of changes in the world market price. 
From this analysis, it can be seen that the loss of nuclear power in 2011 did not lead to a dramatic increase in fossil fuel consumption. The increase in natural gas imports seems to have been offset by energy efficiency, and declines in the consumption of electricity, trends which were already underway before the 2011 disaster.
The extra fossil fuel required in the absence of nuclear power doesn’t appear significant in the statistics listed above because it is a small fraction of total fossil fuel consumption for all uses (transportation, industry, heating, cooking and electricity generation). In 2012, petroleum accounted for 9.532 quadrillion Btu, while natural gas and coal accounted for about the same, 9.646 quadrillion Btu. Petroleum accounts for very little electricity generation, but coal and gas are used primarily for electricity generation, so we can see that only about half of fossil fuel imports are used to make electricity. This is a distinction that the Japanese government and the media have either deliberately or negligently refused to make. Almost all reporting on the fossil fuel import problem has framed it as if electricity generation consumed all fossil fuel imports, as if the 30% loss of generating capacity (caused by the nuclear shutdown) would lead directly to a 30% increase in fossil fuel imports. There has indeed been an import shock to the economy, but it is much more of a shock to the electric utilities. There is something remarkable in the fact that they confuse their extra purchases of fossil fuel with the whole nation’s purchases of fuel. It shows how much they have developed a l’état c’est moi attitude.
It is said that nuclear energy used to generate 30% of Japan’s electricity, but it has become well understood since 2011 that this capacity will never be reached again (another issue which is discussed in the Bloomberg report). So even if it were true that fossil fuel imports are destroying the economy, nuclear wouldn’t provide much of a solution. An awful lot of money is being spent now to upgrade nuclear facilities in the hope that restarts will be approved, but much of this spending will end up being in vain. Nuclear, if restarts happen and no accidents ensue, will never again generate the 30% share. Under the stricter rules for operating nuclear power plants, many will never be started again. It is either impossible to make them safe, or not economically viable to make them safe. Many of them are too old to continue operating under the stricter rules, Fukushima Dai-ichi and Dai-ni are out of the picture forever, and there is little chance that any old reactors will be replaced by new ones.
And all this is being done just to get back to the status of 2011--to eliminate that 7.3% extra in fossil fuel imports. Yet if most of the nuclear capacity can never be restored, then the best hope is to reduce this figure to 4% or 5%--something which could be done by continuing with conservation, renewable development and efficiency gains. Not mentioned at all in any of the plans are the costs of operating and regulating nuclear plants, and importing uranium. The Japanese government talks as if Cameco and Areva just mine, process and ship their product for free.
Japan has deliberately favored making exports cheaper with its yen devaluation, and thus created a false balance-of-trade crisis by making its energy imports 25% more expensive than they need to be. The solution is to export more, but for many reasons unrelated to nuclear energy, this is not happening. The trade deficit was destined to arise with or without the nuclear crisis.
This raises the question of whether the propaganda campaign about the balance of trade/energy problem is a deliberate smokescreen behind which the nuclear village is being resurrected. The LDP government wants to promote the export of Japanese nuclear technology and keep a vast portion of the nation’s revenue siphoned off to a parasitic class of rent-seekers. Everyone who has earned a living in nuclear now sees the money flow as an entitlement program, like it is right and fair that taxpayers and ratepayers should continue to support them as if they were deserving pensioners. It doesn’t matter that the nuclear industry serves no purpose and inflicts great harm and risk on society. For them, the only consideration is the continuation of the established flow of money.