2012/12/25

The Reset Button


I’m taking a break from the typical doom-and-gloom story and trying to go with something more uplifting for this Christmas Day of 2012. Actually, it was just hard to think dark thoughts while I was enjoying a Mont Blanc aux marrons Christmas cake with my family on Christmas Eve, and it was hard to forget the story of the man who made it.
Naritoshi Satou was a fifth generation baker and owner of a patisserie in Ishinomaki, Miyagi prefecture. This town is famous now as one of the places hit hardest by the tsunami of 2011. He and his wife and four children survived by running to higher ground, but their bakery and their home were completely destroyed. They evacuated and stayed with relatives in Chiba prefecture, then quickly got to work rebuilding their lives in a new place. Four months after the earthquake-tsunami-meltdown disaster, their new patisserie in Narita, Chez Nari, opened its doors.
NHK News heard about them and did a report on their shop in the early summer of 2011. You can watch it here. Even if you don’t understand Japanese, it’s easy get the meaning from the images and fill in the blanks on their recovery story.
Chez Nari, Kozunomori 2-15-13, Narita-shi, Chiba-ken, Japan 286-0048
There are probably people back in Ishinomaki who think he abandoned the community that is trying to rebuild the town, but I suspect most people don’t resent him for the personal choice he made. Others might say there was a slightly insensitive twisting of the knife in the way NHK used one family’s story to fill the need for a feel-good story about the disaster. After all, not everyone had the social and financial capital to get out and start over somewhere else, and the promotion of stories like this carry an implication that victims don’t need government support or a systematic solution to their problems. The message could be taken as an admonition to just bootstrap, expect nothing and get on with your life.
These reservations aside, there is clearly something inspirational and instructive in Mr. Nari’s reaction to his situation. He quickly overcame the emotions and excessive sentimentality that can cloud the decisions of people faced with catastrophic changes in their circumstances. Even though he had roots in the community and in the family business going back 120 years, he realized quickly that the life he had known until then was definitively over. Rebuilding would be slow and uncertain, lasting through the formative years of all his children. Compensation from government and insurance companies would be an insulting pittance. In hindsight, it was an insane risk to live so close to the sea, and rebuilding in the same area would be even crazier. He chose not to spend his time in a temporary housing facility, ruminating over the past while waiting years for rebuilding plans to ferment within the layers of local, prefectural and national bureaucracies. Perhaps the best way to help the locals was to show them an example of someone making it in a new place.
Mr. Nari’s story is instructive on a deeper level as well. It’s not only about starting over in a new place with new people. It’s about doing what once seemed impossible, leaving behind ways of living and thinking that once seemed indispensable. It should be obvious that there is a larger lesson here about the fear we have of leaving behind our familiar ways of producing energy and solving the global financial crisis.
Best wishes and thanks to everyone who has read this blog since the summer of 2011. It has had 14,000 page views from countries on every continent. This is a small fraction of what a Justin Bieber video gets in an hour, but a thousand times more than the readership of my last research paper for an obscure academic journal. Comments pro or con are always welcome.  

2012/12/18

The Air Conditioned Nightmare II


A few months ago, I wrote about Henry Miller’s travelogue The Air Conditioned Nightmare (written 1939-42, published 1945), and noted how striking it was that he had a prophetic sense of the ominous changes about to happen to the world. It was not just a matter of him being aware, like everyone at the time, that the world was hurtling toward a massive war for the second time in twenty-five years. He had been living in France during the years of the Great Depression, and when he returned to America and traveled across it by automobile, he actually didn’t pay much attention to the material poverty. Instead, he saw new machines and material comforts everywhere. Alongside the desperate joblessness he also saw people mad to acquire cars just so that they could commute to work and sit in air-conditioned offices all day. He was most aghast at the spiritual change in people:

"A great change had come over America, no doubt about that. There were greater ones coming, I felt certain. We were only witnessing the prelude to something unimaginable. Everything was cock-eyed, and getting more and more so. Maybe we would end up on all fours, gibbering like baboons. Something disastrous was in store - everybody felt it. Yes, America had changed. The lack of resilience, the feeling of hopelessness, the resignation, the skepticism, the defeatism - I could scarcely believe my ears at first. And over it all that same veneer of fatuous optimism - only now decidedly cracked." (p.13)

Henry Miller couldn’t have known about the top-secret Manhattan Project underway at the time, but he must have been aware of headlines of the early 40's reporting on the splitting of the uranium atom. These headlines appeared in The New York Times before the Manhattan Project got underway:

·   Vast Energy Freed by Uranium Atom; Split, It Produces 2 'Cannonballs,' Each of 100,000,000 Electron Volts Hailed as Epoch Making, New Process, Announced at Columbia, Uses Only 1-30 Volt to Liberate Big Force. Jan. 31, 1939.
·   The Week in Science; When Uranium Splits Doubtful Source of Power Cancer and X-Rays Neutron Possibilities News Notes. March 5, 1939.
·   Vision Earth Rocked by Isotope Blast; Scientists Say Bit of Uranium Could Wreck New York. April 30, 1939.
·   Release Largest Store Known on Earth A ‘Philosopher’s Stone’ When Separated in Pure Form It Can Yield 235 Billion Volts Per Atom of Its Own. May 5, 1939.
·   New Key is Found to Atomic Energy; Actino-Uranium Is Credited With Power to A Mixture of Physics and Fantasy. March 17, 1940.
·   Vast Power Source in Atomic Energy Opened by Science; Report on New Source of Power. May 5, 1940.
·   Third Way to Split Atom Is Found By Halving Uranium and Thorium; Scientists at University of California Say Cleavage Creates Much Energy -- Tokyo Men Also Report Uranium Fission. March 3, 1941.
·   Scientist Reaches London; Dr. N.H.D. Bohr, Dane, Has a New Atomic Blast Invention. October 9, 1943.
·   Research Institute is Seized in Denmark; Germans Are Expected to Work on New Secret Weapon. December 12, 1943.

(List of references made by Korean Minjok Leadership Academy)



This quote is from an article in Scientific American in 1939:

“The latter problem brings up an interesting and rather disturbing aspect of the case. These secondary neutrons constitute a fresh supply of ‘bullets’ to produce new fissions. Thus we are faced with a vicious circle, with one explosion setting off another, and energy being continuously and cumulatively released. It is probable that a sufficiently large mass of uranium would be explosive if its atoms once got well started dividing. As a matter of fact, the scientists are pretty nervous over the dangerous forces they are unleashing, and are hurriedly devising means to control them.
It may or may not be significant that, since early spring, no accounts of research on nuclear fission have been heard from Germany — not even from discoverer Hahn. It is not unlikely that the German government, spotting a potentially powerful weapon of war, has imposed military secrecy on all recent German investigations. A large concentration of isotope 235, subjected to neutron bombardment, might conceivably blow up all London or Paris.”


   In hindsight we can see that the nuclear age and the permanently militarized economy was Miller's premonition of “something unimaginable” that was being born. His insight might have been less prophetic and more just wise observation of changes happening in the world. However, in choosing his title, he couldn't have consciously known that the new technology of air conditioning would play such a crucial role in building atomic weapons. For how many people even today know that coolant technology has been essential to every nation that has enriched uranium for nuclear fuel and weapons?
Since the UN and nations of the world applauded themselves for signing the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, they have all done a good job of not mentioning that uranium enrichment processes were exempted from the agreement. If you do internet searches for exemptions to the protocol, you’ll find some for asthma inhalers and other uses that account for trivial amounts, but you won’t find mention of the large consumption of CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) used in uranium enrichment since 1987. It seems to have been tactfully left unmentioned in UN documents that were meant to tout the victory and not allow the public to question the judgment that nuclear was clean and green enough to be given a pass on its ozone depleting emissions. Although no one wanted to draw attention to the exemptions, CFC pollution by the nuclear industry has long been an open secret, and it is not denied by the polluters themselves.

have built an atomic bomb while under Allied Forces bombardment. Essential facilities like this would have been impossible to hide.
The additional problem with CFCs is that, as well as being ozone depleters, they are said to trap heat 10,000 to 20,000 times more effectively than CO2. Thus the carbon footprint of nuclear energy (mining, processing, construction of plants, cooling of fuel, decommissioning of plants, decontamination, transport of waste, storage of waste) takes a huge increase when you consider the energy used to run the cooling systems and the impact of leaks of coolant. A 2004 report from the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research described the recent history of American enrichment facilities this way:

"In addition to requiring a large amount of electricity during operation, the compressors in the gas diffusion facilities also generate a great deal of heat that requires dissipation. In U.S. plants this heat is dissipated through the use of ozone depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) such as the coolant CFC-114 (often referred to simply as Freon or Freon-114). The manufacture, import, and use of CFCs were substantially restricted by the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer, which the U.S. is implementing through the 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act. As a result of these commitments, the manufacture of Freon in the U.S. ended in 1995 and its emissions to the air in the United States from large users fell by nearly 60% between 1991 and 2002. The emissions from the Paducah gaseous diffusion plant, however, have remained virtually constant over this time, falling just over 7% between 1989 and 2002. In 2002, the Paducah enrichment plant emitted more than 197.3 metric tons of Freon into the air through leaking pipes and other equipment. This single facility accounted for more than 55% of all airborne releases of this ozone depleting CFC from all large users in the entire United States in 2002. Due to the lack of additional manufacturing of Freon since 1995, the U.S. Enrichment Corporation [USEC] is currently looking for a non-CFC coolant to use. Likely candidates would still have heat trapping potential, and thus even if they were not as dangerous to the ozone layer, they would still remain a potential concern in relation to global warming and climate change."

-Arjun Makhijani, Ph.D., Lois Chalmers, Brice Smith, Ph.D. Uranium Enrichment: Just Plain Facts to Fuel an Informed Debate on Nuclear Proliferation and Nuclear Power. Institute for Energy and Environmental Research. October 2004. http://ieer.org/resource/reports/uranium-enrichment/

Since this time, USEC, the corporation that leases and operates the government-owned enrichment facility in Paducah, has not denied this history, but they claim to be moving toward a solution:

"Project sponsor USEC Inc. intends the American Centrifuge Plant to replace its existing energy-intensive, Cold-War era production facility. This transition will reduce greenhouse-gas emissions related to USEC’s existing enrichment technology by millions of tons annually."

The downside of this new, less energy-intensive technology is that once it is no longer exclusively possessed by one country, nuclear fuel enrichment becomes more small-scale and concealable. The US government and USEC have responded to public pressure to reduce the environmental impact of uranium enrichment, but they have very strong incentives to not share this technology. The benefit of the old technology is that it is so energy intensive and hot that facilities are difficult to hide from IAEA inspections. If the new technology were used by anyone other than its self-appointed guardians, uranium enrichment could become accessible to “rogue” states and non-state entities. If the new technology really does mitigate an old problem, it just creates a new one with equally unsettling implications.
However, the really unsettling thing about this issue is what it shows about our system of global governance. The UN proudly proclaims the following on its webpage entitled “ozone day”:

"In 1994, the United Nations General Assembly proclaimed 16 September the International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer, commemorating the date of the signing, in 1987, of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (resolution 49/114). Implementation of the Montreal Protocol progressed well in developed and developing countries. All phase-out schedules were adhered to in most cases, some even ahead of schedule. In view of the steady progress made under the Protocol, already in 2003, former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan stated, ‘Perhaps the single most successful international agreement to date has been the Montreal Protocol’. His views are shared widely in the international community."

By the standards of all other international agreements, perhaps the Montreal Protocol is the most successful, but in light of what we know about the exemptions granted for uranium enrichment, it is clear that such agreements are made behind closed doors in an undemocratic process that leaves electorates and citizens uninformed about the issues in question. No one asked you if you thought the nuclear industry should be exempt from restrictions on CFC use, and the UN made no effort after the fact to inform you of its decision.
The decision to grant these exemptions must have been based on the “realism” that holds that nuclear disarmament is not going to happen and that the global investments made in nuclear power plants cannot just be written off in order to quickly halt destruction of the ozone layer.
No doubt, the UN must have turned to its own promoter of nuclear energy, the IAEA, to quantify the overall carbon and ozone impact of nuclear energy. Unsurprisingly, the IAEA would conclude that in spite of the negative effects of nuclear energy, the overall harm would be greater if the world had to produce electricity by other means.
Of course, opponents of nuclear do their own calculations and argue that nuclear energy has a much greater carbon footprint and ozone effect than the nuclear industry cares to admit. The negatives accumulate if one also considers the costs passed on to future generations for decommissioning, waste storage, decontamination and liability for accidents. The nuclear industry claims that money has been put aside for decommissioning and waste storage, but it is likely that the costs are going to be much higher than what has been put aside.
The public wasn't involved in this discussion at all when the Montreal Protocol was signed, although it is an interesting question to wonder what large environmental NGOs consented to and agreed not to discuss when compromises were worked out.
We can see in hindsight that the Montreal Protocol could have gone a lot further. It could have disallowed the exemptions for uranium enrichment and turned the world away from nuclear energy. It was, after all, just one year after the Chernobyl catastrophe. Now, twenty-five years later, when alternative energy sources are finally being developed on a large scale, it is clear that action should have been taken sooner. As much as the Montreal Protocol was a success in mitigating the worst damage to the ozone layer, it was a failure for continuing to support nuclear energy while missing an opportunity to promote alternatives.
We know about the exemptions for uranium enrichment only because of the relatively open nature of the United States government and the culture of citizen activism there. Argentina, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Iran, Israel, Japan, the Netherlands, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, and the United Kingdom are the other known operators of enrichment facilities, but nothing seems to be published about their impact on global warming and the ozone layer, or what these countries are planning to do to limit the environmental damage.

UPDATE MAY, 2013: For an update on USEC, see Ecowatch's Countdown to Nuclear Ruin at Paducah. The federal government privatized the enrichment plant many years ago, and now that USEC has made as much money as it can, it is abandoning the toxic legacy for tax payers to deal with.

Further reading and notes:

  • "The Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Paducah, Kentucky, is the only U.S.-owned uranium enrichment facility in the United States. Owned by the U.S. Department of Energy, it is leased and operated by the United States Enrichment Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of USEC Inc. The plant employs about 1,200 people and produces low-enriched uranium fuel for commercial nuclear power plants in the United States and around the world."
  • A good analysis of the claims made on both sides of the issue about of CFC use in uranium enrichment:
  • A response to anti-nuclear activist Helen Caldicott's “distortions,” apparently written by a loyal employee of USEC.
  • Understanding the Cleanup Process at Paducah’s Gaseous Diffusion Plant
  • A likely justification for allowing enrichment facilities to continue operations was so that they could afford to carry out downblending – the process of turning highly enriched uranium from decommissioned weapons into less enriched uranium for nuclear power plants. The existence of weapons grade uranium does not, however, mean that it must be used up in nuclear power plants if a nation has good reasons to produce its electricity by other means. Nuclear waste, regardless of its level of enrichment, can be disposed of in the same way that spent nuclear fuel is disposed of.
  • In the list above of other known operators of enrichment facilities, South Korea is not listed, even though it has adopted an energy policy of strong reliance on nuclear energy. It is curious that it would choose this policy while being utterly dependent on a foreign country continuing to operate enrichment facilities. This underlines the falsity of claims by some nations that they can achieve “energy independence” while becoming reliant on a form of energy that requires massive infrastructure investments, raw material imports, and other forms of energy for cooling and backup in case of accidents.
  • John Warrick. "Paducah Plant Spewed Plutonium." The Washington Post. October 1, 2000. "The unsigned maps, bearing a handwritten date of Aug. 26, 1999, show a plant ringed with contamination that extends in some cases for well over a mile. The diagrams also show elevated levels of plutonium in the Ohio River, about two miles north of the plant."
  • Jean Harrington. "Splitting the Atom." Scientific American. October 1939.
  • Pavel Podvig. "The Fallacy of the Megatons to Megawatts Program." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. July 23, 2008.
  • Geoffrey Sea, "Countdown to Nuclear Ruin at Paducah," Ecowatch, May 22, 2013.



2012/12/11

New Concerns about Tritium

I must be feeling homesick because my attention keeps going back to nuclear issues in Canada that are currently getting coverage in mainstream and social media. Or I might just be sick of thinking about the Gordian knot closer to my home that is the ruins of the Fukushima Daiichi NPP.
Canada’s CANDU (heavy water) reactors have a good record of safety and don’t face the seismic and flooding risks of some reactors south of the border. They have never had a meltdown, and if they do face a serious loss of power incident, they are said to have more passive safety and be easier to cool off and contain than light water reactors.
The major concerns that have persisted over the years have to do with tritium (a radioactive hydrogen isotope) releases and long-term storage solutions for nuclear waste.
CANDU reactors release 20 times as much tritium as American light water reactors, and so it is no random coincidence that the allowable limit for drinking water is higher in Canada – 7,000 Bq/L. CANDU reactors couldn’t operate if they had to adhere to the American limit of 740 Bq/L. The actual level of tritium in the Great Lakes is close to the natural level of the pre-nuclear age (about 10 Bq/L), but what the limit means is that when a release occurs and the local water is contaminated, the government of Canada thinks that it is alright for people to consume water with 7,000 Bq/L. It seems this level was set upon the assumption that such an intake level would not last for long.
Same lake, different standards of safety on the American and Canadian sides of it.
This high level is considered to be safe because tritiated water is assumed to have a short biological half-life of about ten days. It’s water, after all. You drink it in and it is quickly sweated out or passed in urine, then replaced by the next gulp of water. But it’s not that simple. There have always been lingering questions about how much tritium becomes organically bound (OBT-organically bound tritium) and what impact OBT could have on ecosystems.
If you remember anything at all about high school chemistry and biology lessons, you might remember that H figures prominently in organic compounds, and H gets into them ultimately through the breakdown of H2O, carbohydrates, fats and proteins. This is more of a factor in plant biology because the well-known simplified equation for photosynthesis is:
So while it is true that a lot of tritium will quickly be diluted and evaporated to insignificant levels, some of it will bio-concentrate and bio-accumulate. Animals eat the sugars and carbohydrates made by the plants, and tritium can end up staying inside human tissue much longer than the presumed ten-day biological half-life. It’s important to note also that the hydrogen atoms in DNA also get there from food and water taken in by organisms. There is evidence of tritium being bound in DNA molecules.
The effects remain debatable, but the recent findings on this matter, as reported by Tap Canada, have prompted calls for a review of standards for tritium. One study of marine life near British nuclear plants found tritium concentrated at 1,000 – 10,000 times the level of the surrounding sea water. This finding, and others, prompted the French Autorite de Surete Nucleaire (ASN) to call for an investigation on new approaches in relation to "possible hereditary effects." After the publication of the ASN’s White Paper on tritium, the ASN called for a monitoring committee and for nuclear operators to control their tritium emissions. There is little comfort given by this report when it states,

“Discharges of this element are forecast to increase due to expected changes in the fuel management methods used by the NPP [nuclear power plants], and also due to new tritium-emitting facilities, including new power plants that are to be built, and the ITER [fusion energy experimental reactor]project.

Did Ontario Power Generation get the message? It’s not like they haven’t heard it before. The concern raised by the ASN has existed ever since nuclear scientists had to start handling tritium. The International Institute for Concern for Public Health reported in 2006:

“Convinced of the dangers to health from tritium, the Toronto Board of Health and Toronto City Council have asked the Province to reduce the level of tritium allowed in the city’s drinking water. The Council then passed a resolution endorsing the 1994 ACES scientific advisory body to the Government of Ontario recommendation that the standard be reduced to 100 Bq/L immediately and then go to 20 Bq/L after five years.”

Another pressing concern in Canada is the imminent decision about long-term nuclear waste disposal. A newly formed group called Stop the Great Lakes Nuclear Dump has launched a petition drive to oppose Ontario Power Generation’s plan to build a Deep Geological Repository one kilometer from the shore of Lake Huron. The plan raises obvious questions about the safety of the water supply, the lack of public awareness of the proposal, and the suspiciously convenient location near the source of so much nuclear waste in Ontario, the Bruce Nuclear Generating Station, the largest NPP in the world measured by net power rating.

Further reading: Ace Hoffman's in-depth report on tritium.

Ian Fairlie. Radiation Risks of Tritium: Additional Notes for the Ontario Drinking Water Advisory Council (ODWAC)






2012/12/06

How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb



The members of U2 never answered the question posed in the title of their 2004 CD, but it turns out the answer to this seemingly intractable problem is pretty simple: do nothing. The plutonium pits and tritium initiators in hydrogen bombs go through natural deterioration that would render them useless if they were not constantly given very expensive upgrades. We could walk away from them and leave them in their silos and soon they wouldn't be bombs anymore. They would still be nuclear waste, and potential bomb material, but doing nothing would lead to effective disarmament within a short time.
We hear a lot of news about the need to continue with the reduction of nuclear stockpiles, and we imagine this means the danger of their detonation can be removed only by actively dismantling them and verifying that other nuclear powers are doing likewise. However, the public is largely unaware that atomic weapons need constant maintenance and refreshment in order to be usable. This has led to an impression that the remaining stockpile (admirably reduced since 1990 down to just a few thousand) is just an unfortunate legacy of the Cold War that we might as well keep as long as some countries want to keep theirs and others want to become nuclear powers. Yet it’s not so simple. The maintenance of a nuclear deterrent requires the high cost and risks involved in maintaining plutonium and tritium production lines.
This point becomes obvious if we think about the name of the most fearsome weapon: the hydrogen bomb (this discussion doesn't apply so much to the less coveted bombs made with enriched uranium). If the fissionable dreaded core of the weapon is made of plutonium, what has simple hydrogen got to do with it? Hydrogen became the moniker of the bomb because the radioactive isotope of hydrogen, tritium, is the initiator and booster of the fusion-fission explosion that allows a greater yield to be had from a given quantity of plutonium. But tritium has a relatively short half-life of twelve years, so it requires constant replenishment. The plutonium pits have a much longer half-life, but they quickly lose their effectiveness as well.
For American weapons, tritium was produced during the Cold War at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, but in the 1990s it was deemed that existing supplies of tritium would be enough to maintain the reduced stockpile of weapons negotiated under the START treaty. But then in 2003 supplies were running low and the Watts Bar Nuclear Generating station, in Tennessee - a commercial nuclear power plant - supplied tritium for nuclear weapons. A new tritium extraction facility came on line in 2006 at Savannah River.
For 19 years, after the environmental catastrophe caused by the Rocky Flats plutonium production facility, the US had no capacity to produce new plutonium pits for its reduced but aging stockpile. It seems that in the early days, none of the nuclear powers, as they were building tens of thousands of weapons, stopped to wonder how they could afford to keep these arsenals fresh in the coming decades and centuries. A cynic (not I, of course) might say that the real reason both the US and the USSR wanted a reduction in stockpiles was that they were waking up to the astounding cost of maintenance. Even with the reduced numbers, all nuclear powers are faced with the same dilemma: how to finance being a nuclear power in perpetuity. How to maintain all the required civilian and military reactors supplying the tritium and the plutonium. How to maintain the technical skills and the art of crafting the perfect plutonium pit.
In 1993 the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) was tasked with re-establishing the nation’s ability to produce plutonium pits, and it wasn't until 2007 that the first pit was completed. The laboratory’s website reported the process this way:

"Practice makes perfect pits," says Putnam [former director of the Plutonium Sustainment Program]. Significant interruptions to the production cycle increase the risks of introducing deviations into the manufacturing process, which can lead to production errors, resulting in a considerable increase in the scrap rate, that is, a higher number of unusable pits. In addition, efficiency is lost. Pit manufacturing is a “use it or lose it” endeavor precisely because it requires constant production to maintain quality and increase efficiency. “Making pits is a process and an exercise in capability. If that capability is not used, it atrophies - becomes ‘rusty.’” says Tim George, deputy associate director for Plutonium Science and Manufacturing. Over the next few years, the program plans to build or assemble four to six pits a year for various scaled experiments and later disassemble them to practice production and to maintain a capability for the future. “Pit manufacturing is an art,” Putnam asserts.

To hear it described this way, one has to wonder why developed nations worry so much about smaller, impoverished states becoming a nuclear threat. The Los Alamos staff makes it clear that even for a nation the size of the USA, it is not certain the resources will always be available for maintaining a nuclear deterrent.
How much to spend is not an easy question in these days of global financial crisis, and neither party wanted to talk about it during the recent presidential election, even though the House of Representatives passed a defense authorization bill that devoted $160 million to a new plutonium plant in New Mexico that will make 450 or more plutonium pits per year.
Barack Obama began his presidency with a lofty goal of eliminating nuclear weapons, and he won the Nobel Peace Prize just for talking about this and saying some other fine words about the aspirations of the developing world. The new president’s stated intent contradicted the direction that the US was moving in with the resumption of production of plutonium pits at LANL. Thus, utter confusion reigns. No one knows if the future holds hope of disarmament or a resumption of Cold War weapons production. How much should a super power spend now to maintain a fleet of weapons created in the madness of the early Cold War years?

Molly at nucleardiner.com sums up the conundrum:

All federal tax revenue in 2011 was $2.2 trillion — less than one sixth of the total national debt. The $15 trillion debt amounts to $133,000 per taxpayer. A decision not to build the CMRR-Nuclear Facility could save around $6 billion over the next 10 years. Not expanding plutonium pit production could save tens of billions of dollars over the next half-century.

The choices are no different for other nuclear states that have to question the stupendous environmental and social costs of maintaining both nuclear weapons and the required fleet of civilian nuclear reactors that make weapons production economically feasible.

UPDATE:
About a week after I posted, this article appeared in The Washington Post:
Walter Pincus. "How many nukes does it take to be safe?" The Washington Post. December 18, 2012.

Further Reading:

Pavel Podvig. "The Fallacy of the Megatons to Megawatts Program." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. July 23, 2008.

2012/12/02

Back to 1982's Electric Avenue


Electricity consumption in Japan in 1982 was 1/2 of 2010 levels.

"I believe in Spinoza's God who reveals himself in the orderly harmony of what exists, not in a God who concerns himself with fates and actions of human beings."
-quote of Albert Einstein published in the New York Times, April 25, 1929
We hear a lot about how both developed and developing countries need ever-increasing supplies of electricity to meet their future “needs.” In Japan, this argument is used to justify the restart of nuclear reactors and the continuation of the nation’s pre-Fukushima energy policy. Nuclear is also justified in this argument because it is “green” and doesn’t require dependence on expensive fuel imports. Nuclear fuel makes nuclear energy cheap, if you can ignore the tremendous costs of capital investment, decommissioning and waste handling that are all pushed on to future generations who may be too ignorant, de-skilled and poor to deal with them.
The argument in favor of the nuclear restart takes economic growth and growth of energy consumption themselves as a laws of nature, like the law of nuclear energy itself: E=mc2. It also places man at the center of nature, as if some supreme being somewhere has promised us a solution to the energy crisis because we are the chosen species.
Physics professor emeritus Bernard L. Cohen wrote in 1990,

“The very existence of plutonium is often viewed as the work of the devil. As the most important ingredient in nuclear bombs, it may someday be responsible for killing untold millions of people... If it gets into the human body, it is highly toxic. On the other hand, its existence is the only guarantee we have that this world can obtain all the energy it will ever need forever at a reasonable price. In fact, I am personally convinced that citizens of the distant future will look upon it as one of God's greatest gifts to humanity.”

Baruch Spinoza (1632-1677) is considered to be the inspiration for rationalism and the Enlightenment thinkers who gave birth to the scientific age, and he was the first to speak of a cool and indifferent god rather than a fatherly God who cares about humanity. Ironically, here we see in Cohen’s words a 20th century descendant of rationalism using this latter concept of God to justify the use of plutonium.
People who warn about the dangers of both carbon fuels and nuclear energy are often told that the only alternative is to go back to a pre-industrial, pastoral lifestyle, as if somehow this wins the argument. However, the answer is of course, yes, that, or something worse, might be the result. But I’ll leave aside these dark thoughts about being blasted back to feudalism or the Stone Age, and use the graph below to make readers consider the simple step of going back to a 1970s or 80s lifestyle. Relax, the music (aside from disco) was better then, anyway.
The graph shows the Japanese government’s record of electricity generation from 1952 to 2011, and the curious thing to note is that output doubled from 1982 to 2010, even though the population had stopped growing, and output continued to increase after the collapse of the bubble economy in 1991. If you subtract the electricity generated by nuclear in 2010, the amount generated that year by other methods is still greater than the total output for 1982. What changed in those years from 1982 to 2010?
green-nuclear, orange-coal, light blue-hydro, purple-liquefied natural gas, brown-oil, dark blue-water pumping, red-renewables (solar, wind)
units of y-axis: 10E+8 kilowatt hours.

In the 1980s Japan began the transition from being a frugal, productive nation to a nation of consumers. The oil shock of the early 70s was a distant memory. The yen doubled in value in a short period, and suddenly the pressure was on from America to buy stuff and reduce Japan's trade surplus.
In the 1980s you could still meet people who refrained from using indoor heat until January, even though they were living in tiny houses that were suddenly worth a million dollars. But in the years that followed everything changed. Industry was beginning to move offshore, but the slack was picked up by consumer demand. The companies that built nuclear power plants also built the consumer goods that would use the electricity they produced. Electronics chain stores kept their front doors open in winter and summer, blasting out heat or air conditioning according to the season, blaring loud jingles and keeping (it seemed) every TV on at high volume – something they continued to do even during the crisis periods of energy shortages in 2011 and 2012.
Some of the increase in electricity output can be attributed to a shift from carbon fuels to electricity used for transportation, cooking and heating. This might have done something to make the local air cleaner, but a lot of electricity is lost in the wires on its way from distant nuclear power plants.
Most of the increase can be attributed, I believe, to active promotion of wasteful lifestyles and non-essential goods – the creation of desire for air-conditioning, massage chairs and 24-hour convenience stores, more automated manufacturing, less human muscle power. People were encouraged to be totally complacent about the waste, where it was coming from and how much it might cost to the future.
The point here is that Japan of 1982 was not the dark ages. Before we scare ourselves about needing to devolve back to the lifestyle of the Amish, let’s consider a simple first step. It wouldn't be so unbearable to return to the conditions of a few decades ago. At that time, Japan’s post-war rebuilding was complete. It had excellent statistics in education, health care and longevity, and employment. It had some serious environmental problems, but it had managed to lift itself out of poverty and join the ranks of developed nations. This is something to keep in mind as our leaders act as if it would be impossible to stop growth, reverse energy consumption trends and make “drastic” cuts of 10 to 20%. If a cut of 50% would throw us back to living like Japan of 1982, how is that a problem?

Sources cited:

Cohen, Bernard Leonard. The Nuclear Energy Option: An Alternative for the 90’s. 1st ed. Plenum Press, 1990. http://www.phyast.pitt.edu/~blc/book/chapter13.html



2012/12/01

Crisis? What crisis?


This album cover from 1975 seemed to fit with this blog entry.
The following pages are from a guidebook to living safely with radiation. It appeared within six months of the Fukushima disaster and was intended for mothers who were concerned about protecting their families. There are several interesting questions to contemplate while looking over these pages.

Kunikazu NoguchiProtecting Mothers and Children from Radiation
  1. Is the book opportunistic or a valuable resource of urgently needed information? 
  2. Is it wise to advise people to adapt their lifestyle to radioactive food and a radioactive environment? The people responsible for the contamination owe the victims new homes in a safe environment, so it is somewhat sinister to promote the idea that victims should adapt to their circumstances rather than demand compensation, and homes and jobs in a safe place. 
  3. Yet for practical purposes, everyone knows the victims have nowhere to go, and that they will be cheated of the compensation due to them, so why not be pragmatic and promote ways to protect oneself? 
  4. Why is the book aimed only at mothers and children? 
  5. Would a book marketed to fathers and children have had the same childish graphics? To comprehend the message, one need not even know how to read Japanese. The density of information is very low. The tips communicated by the illustrations on these pages could be condensed to text that would fit on the back of a baseball card.
Let’s play this game of condescension and infantilization…


Can you match the advice to the picture? Hint: Not all of these are depicted in the book.

  1. shake off your clothes before coming inside
  2. don't slide or play in the dirt
  3. check the radiation level of water before you swim in it
  4. don't let your pet drink from standing pools of water
  5. work together with fellow citizens to launch a class action lawsuit
  6. stay away from gullies and places where water drains and soil collects
  7. wash your food before cooking
  8. dry your laundry indoors
  9. wear a mask over your nose and mouth
  10. keep the windows closed on rainy days
  11. get a passport and emigrate
  12. clean gutters and ditches where dirt has accumulated
  13. check the surfaces of playground equipment for radiation before using it
  14. clean wounds thoroughly
  15. flip the top layer and bottom layer of soil in the garden before planting
  16. wash your bicycle seat and handle bars before riding
  17. stock up on mineral water
  18. buy foods from sources that have screened food for contamination



When people are asked to make these adaptations, we have to wonder how far it can go. Will gradual changes be accepted no matter how much people are asked to adapt, or is there a limit at which people decide to chuck it all and live with the risks, to flee to somewhere safer regardless of the costs, or even to no longer live at all?


The book:

放射能からママと子どもを守る本
houshano kara mama to kodomo wo mamoru hon
野口 邦和  株式会社 法研
Kunikazu Noguchi. Protecting Mothers and Children from Radiation. Pages 3-11. Houken Corporation. 2011.  

*This source has been cited and excerpted here with the intent of following the conventions of fair use for purposes of non-commercial, scholarly research.
勘弁してください。

2012/11/27

Nuclear Power Plants and Proliferation


“In terms of weapons, the best disarmament tool so far is nuclear energy. We have been taking down the Russian warheads, turning it into electricity. Ten percent of American electricity comes from decommissioned warheads. We haven't even started the American stockpile.”

Stewart Brand
February 2010
TED Conference Debate: Does the World Need Nuclear Energy?

“The ability to construct a weapon from reactor-grade plutonium was demonstrated decades ago. It is dangerous even to consider it an open question. Hans Blix, director-general of the IAEA, informed our Institute that there is 'no debate' on this point in the Safeguards Department of the IAEA, and that the agency considers virtually all isotopes of plutonium, including high burn-up reactor-grade plutonium, to be usable in nuclear weapons. In June 1994, U.S. Energy Secretary Hazel O'Leary declassified further details of a 1962 test of a nuclear device using reactor-grade plutonium, which successfully produced a nuclear yield.”

Steven Dolley, Research Director

It is one thing to lie in error or ignorance. One may be young, or new to a field of knowledge. If one is not taking speaking and consulting fees as an expert on the topic, and makes no claims to expertise, no one will think twice about the occasional utterance of pure bullshit. But this is not the case with Stewart Brand. He describes himself as a former member of Greenpeace, a veteran of the environmental movement who now speaks about the heresies of the movement he helped found. He gets to speak at TED conferences and earn a living being one of the select few who lead the conversation on how to save the world. He is a man of science, and as such he should apply the scientific method to his own assumptions. So if he wants to believe that nuclear energy is a fantastic disarmament tool, the first thing he should do is test this idea for negative evidence. Perhaps he has. It is not difficult to do. Reliable sources on the topic are found easily, and when he finds that the UN agency charged with promoting nuclear power disagrees with his assumption, he ought to desist from spreading this wrong information. Only he can answer why he hasn't done his homework, or if he has, why he deliberately lies about this question of nuclear power plants as disarmament tools.

This is not a trivial matter because this lie about nuclear power plants' capacity to “burn up” reactor grade plutonium is repeated often and taught to novices in the nuclear priesthood. They take it in as gospel truth and, like their teachers, are not inclined to question their beliefs as they solidify.
Many others have written about the nuclear proliferation implications of nuclear power plants. To speak of nuclear reactors as a solution to proliferation issues is a bad joke. If nuclear power plants were such a good solution to disposing of bomb-grade plutonium, Israel and the US would give their surplus plutonium to Iran and help them build a reactor to "burn it" up. 
There is a shred of truth in the argument because the bomb-grade fuel that is "burned" in reactors is turned into something more difficult to make a bomb with, but that’s all. The use of bomb-grade plutonium as fuel is not a solution to the ever increasing amounts of nuclear waste, nor will it ever lead to a final disarmament. Decommissioned warheads could just as well be sabotaged with impurities and put in permanent disposal. And we should not overlook the fact that, while some people talk of neutralizing Russian warheads, the US is still producing replacement plutonium pits in Los Alamos in order to refresh the aging inventory of plutonium in its arsenal. Have your weapons if you must, but don’t con us with some fairy tale that proliferation is slowing and disarmament is really happening.

Other sources:

In United States Circumvented Laws To Help Japan Accumulate Tons of Plutonium, Joseph Trento described how the US government at first worried about Japan accumulating plutonium from reactors if the US agreed to share nuclear technology.  Later, the US was a willing accomplice in letting Japan’s plutonium stockpile increase.

Herman Scheer (1944-2010) in The Energy Imperative wrote:

"Clearly, the existing nuclear weaponry or its aspired possession cannot be seen separately from the question of nuclear power. No state which owns and wishes to retain nuclear weapons (and none who is secretly striving for nuclear weapons or, without the knowledge of its own population, want to keep this option open) will be willing to give up its own nuclear power plants. If you have, or want, atomic bombs, not only do you need nuclear power plants, you also need the basis for the an atomic technology industry. For every nuclear power, nuclear technology is a 'double-use technology': having nuclear weaponry without one's own atomic technological potential is unthinkable, and maintaining such a potential solely to build nuclear weapons is almost unaffordable. Thus for as long as we have nuclear weapons, attempts will be made to stimulate a 'renaissance in nuclear power'. But no government will admit to holding on to its nuclear power plants simply to maintain this status. Instead, together with the atomic energy organizations, nuclear powers desperately seek justification for arguing that renewable energy alone is insufficient to meet energy demands. And this is how excellent nuclear scientific knowledge comes to be paired with ignorant arguments against renewable energy. Putting a stop to nuclear energy means nuclear disarmament, otherwise there will be ever greater and more influential attempts to limit renewable energy. Governments that recognize and work towards the target of using renewable energy to meet all their energy needs must also accept the goal of nuclear disarmament. Any other path would be inconsistent or blind to the true circumstances."

-Hermann Scheer, Social Democrat member of the German Bundestag Parliament, President of Eurosolar (The European Association for Renewable Energy) and General Chairman of the World Council for Renewable Energy. The Energy Imperative. p. 160-161. Routledge, 2012.

2012/11/24

The Real Problem with Renewables


While this is a blog calling for the end of nuclear energy, I've tried to keep an open mind about the pros and cons of all forms of energy, and I haven't been duped by the greens who like to gloss over the problems with renewable energy, but finally I think I have found an argument that really gets to the most serious deficiency of green energy:

BORING!
from Lee Camp's Moment of Clarity
November 19, 2012:

"We like that there's a risk of chaos and death in tapping oil, coal and nuclear energy, oil spills and explosions, radioactive meltdowns, mine collapses, fracking earthquakes, inflammable tap water... Every two years a solar panel should explode with the force of a neutron star... you know, horrible, horrible stuff because... we want risk, we want death and destruction, screaming and explosions, we want to feel like we captured a dragon that could escape at any moment wreaking havoc on our way of life.. So all I'm saying is: wind and solar and other renewable energies, if you want to save this planet, start killing more people. Then, and only then, will we consider you a player."

Watch the whole four-minute explanation on Lee Camp's brilliant Moment of Clarity channel on Youtube.